Statistics / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Norra Götaland / Vänersborgs FK vs Ahlafors

Vänersborgs FK vs Ahlafors Statistics & Analysis

Vänersborgs FK Vänersborgs FK
Sep 04, 2026 - 17:15
1 1.26
0 1.34
xG Accuracy: 64%
Ahlafors Ahlafors
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Ahlafors Vänersborgs FK ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 29, 2026 · 02:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5921291

Closing Odds 1.62
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Vänersborgs FK win · Vänersborgs FK 1–0 Ahlafors
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Vänersborgs FK (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 15.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Vänersborgs FK (1X2) 33.4 22.3 +11.0
Draw (1X2) 29.6 22.2 +7.4
Ahlafors (1X2) 37.0 55.5 -18.5
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 63.8 -15.6
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 36.2 +15.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 36.2%. The difference — about 15.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Vänersborgs FK (1X2) 3.96 4.03 -0.1
Draw (1X2) 3.98 4.06 -0.2
Ahlafors (1X2) 1.61 1.62 +0.3
Over 2.5 goals 1.43 1.44 +0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.52 2.54 -0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Division 2 - Norra Götaland
  • Fixture: Vänersborgs FK vs Ahlafors
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-04 17:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
  • xG (showing): Vänersborgs FK 1.26 — Ahlafors 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 2 - Norra Götaland Division 2 - Norra Götaland — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Husqvarna 20 17 3 0 54
2 Skara 21 14 5 2 47
3 IFK Skövde 21 12 5 4 41
4 Ahlafors 20 9 7 4 34
5 Grebbestad 21 10 3 8 33
6 Herrestads 20 8 7 5 31
7 Vänersborgs FK 21 8 4 9 28
8 Stenungsund 21 7 6 8 27
9 Motala 21 5 8 8 23
10 Kumla 21 5 7 9 22
11 Lidköping 20 4 6 10 18
12 Tord 21 2 9 10 15
13 IF Karlstad II 21 2 7 12 13
14 Vänersborgs IF 21 2 3 16 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Husqvarna 20 50 15 +35 54
2 Skara 21 46 22 +24 47
3 Ahlafors 20 45 24 +21 34
4 IFK Skövde 21 38 24 +14 41
5 Herrestads 20 38 35 +3 31
6 Stenungsund 21 36 29 +7 27
7 Grebbestad 21 36 31 +5 33
8 Motala 21 28 29 -1 23
9 Vänersborgs FK 21 28 34 -6 28
10 Tord 21 23 36 -13 15
11 IF Karlstad II 21 23 41 -18 13
12 Lidköping 20 21 38 -17 18
13 Vänersborgs IF 21 21 58 -37 9
14 Kumla 21 20 37 -17 22
Division 2 - Norra Götaland Sweden. Division 2 - Norra Götaland Predictions