Predictions / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Norra Götaland / Herrestads vs Kumla

Prediction Audit: Herrestads vs Kumla Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Herrestads Herrestads
Sep 18, 2026 - 17:30
2 1.48
1 1.12
xG Accuracy: 84%
Kumla Kumla

AI correctly predicted the Herrestads win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Herrestads Herrestads ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Herrestads higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Herrestads -11.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Herrestads 43.8% 54.8% -11.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.1% 20.9% +8.2 pp Model Higher
Kumla 27.1% 24.3% +2.8 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Herrestads's win probability at 54.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 43.8%, a difference of 11.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Herrestads win 2–1).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Herrestads than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Herrestads attacking xG significantly stronger (1.48 vs 1.12)
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Herrestads higher (54.8% vs model 43.8%, 11.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Herrestads win 2–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 18, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Herrestads 43.9% · Draw 29.1% · Kumla 27.1%
    • xG · Herrestads 1.48 — Kumla 1.12
  2. Sep 18, 2026 · 17:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Herrestads 1.62 · Draw 4.24 · Kumla 3.66
    • Implied 1X2 · Herrestads 54.8% · Draw 20.9% · Kumla 24.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 18, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Herrestads 1.62 · Draw 4.24 · Kumla 3.66
    • Implied 1X2 · Herrestads 54.8% · Draw 20.9% · Kumla 24.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 18, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Herrestads win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 45/100
Betting Confidence 46/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 12, 2026 · 02:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8212720

Closing Odds 1.62
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Herrestads win · Herrestads 2–1 Kumla
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Division 2 - Norra Götaland
  • Fixture: Herrestads vs Kumla
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-18 17:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 43.9% · Draw 29.1% · Away 27.1%
  • xG (showing): Herrestads 1.48 — Kumla 1.12 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 39.5% · Probability edge: +12.3 pts · Est. EV: +24.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.6% · No 46.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 2 - Norra Götaland Division 2 - Norra Götaland — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Husqvarna 23 19 3 1 60
2 Skara 23 15 5 3 50
3 IFK Skövde 22 12 5 5 41
4 Ahlafors 23 11 7 5 40
5 Grebbestad 23 12 3 8 39
6 Herrestads 22 9 7 6 34
7 Stenungsund 22 8 6 8 30
8 Vänersborgs FK 23 8 4 11 28
9 Kumla 23 6 7 10 25
10 Lidköping 23 6 6 11 24
11 Motala 22 5 8 9 23
12 Tord 22 3 9 10 18
13 IF Karlstad II 22 2 7 13 13
14 Vänersborgs IF 23 2 3 18 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Husqvarna 23 54 18 +36 60
2 Ahlafors 23 49 26 +23 40
3 Skara 23 48 25 +23 50
4 Grebbestad 23 42 33 +9 39
5 Herrestads 22 41 38 +3 34
6 IFK Skövde 22 38 25 +13 41
7 Stenungsund 22 38 29 +9 30
8 Vänersborgs FK 23 30 39 -9 28
9 Motala 22 29 32 -3 23
10 Lidköping 23 28 42 -14 24
11 Tord 22 25 37 -12 18
12 Vänersborgs IF 23 24 65 -41 9
13 IF Karlstad II 22 23 43 -20 13
14 Kumla 23 22 39 -17 25
Division 2 - Norra Götaland Sweden. Division 2 - Norra Götaland Predictions