Statistics / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Norra Götaland / Stenungsund vs Skara

Stenungsund vs Skara Statistics & Analysis

Stenungsund Stenungsund
Jul 31, 2026 - 17:30
1 1.20
1 1.40
xG Accuracy: 85%
Skara Skara
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Skara Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 04:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1675302

Closing Odds 1.84
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Stenungsund 1–1 Skara
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): +37.5%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Stenungsund (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 14.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Stenungsund (1X2) 30.6 26.7 +3.9
Draw (1X2) 29.5 25.1 +4.4
Skara (1X2) 40.0 48.2 -8.3
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 62.6 -14.4
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 37.4 +14.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 37.4%. The difference — about 14.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Stenungsund (1X2) 3.33 3.33 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.54 3.54 0.0
Skara (1X2) 1.84 1.84 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.46 1.46 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.44 2.44 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Division 2 - Norra Götaland
  • Fixture: Stenungsund vs Skara
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-31 17:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · Away 40.0%
  • xG (showing): Stenungsund 1.2 — Skara 1.4 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 45.7% · Implied: 34.4% · Probability edge: +11.3 pts · Est. EV: +52.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 2 - Norra Götaland Division 2 - Norra Götaland — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Husqvarna 20 17 3 0 54
2 Skara 21 14 5 2 47
3 IFK Skövde 21 12 5 4 41
4 Ahlafors 20 9 7 4 34
5 Grebbestad 21 10 3 8 33
6 Herrestads 20 8 7 5 31
7 Vänersborgs FK 21 8 4 9 28
8 Stenungsund 21 7 6 8 27
9 Motala 21 5 8 8 23
10 Kumla 21 5 7 9 22
11 Lidköping 20 4 6 10 18
12 Tord 21 2 9 10 15
13 IF Karlstad II 21 2 7 12 13
14 Vänersborgs IF 21 2 3 16 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Husqvarna 20 50 15 +35 54
2 Skara 21 46 22 +24 47
3 Ahlafors 20 45 24 +21 34
4 IFK Skövde 21 38 24 +14 41
5 Herrestads 20 38 35 +3 31
6 Stenungsund 21 36 29 +7 27
7 Grebbestad 21 36 31 +5 33
8 Motala 21 28 29 -1 23
9 Vänersborgs FK 21 28 34 -6 28
10 Tord 21 23 36 -13 15
11 IF Karlstad II 21 23 41 -18 13
12 Lidköping 20 21 38 -17 18
13 Vänersborgs IF 21 21 58 -37 9
14 Kumla 21 20 37 -17 22
Division 2 - Norra Götaland Sweden. Division 2 - Norra Götaland Predictions