Vänersborgs IF vs Herrestads Statistics & Analysis

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

• League: Division 2 - Norra Götaland
• Fixture: Vänersborgs IF vs Herrestads
• Kickoff: 2026-06-15 17:30:00
• 1X2 (model): Home 27.7% · Draw 27.8% · Away 44.5%
• xG (showing): Vänersborgs IF 1.18 — Herrestads 1.42 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
• Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
• Model: 51.8% · Implied: 38.1% · Probability edge: +13.7 pts · Est. EV: +32.1%
• BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
• Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Primary pick from the decision engine: Under 2.5 goals.

We separate probability edge (model minus implied, in points of probability) from estimated EV (economic edge at the best price shown on the page).

No pick is a guarantee; variance is especially large in scoreline markets.

What changes first if odds move?

Implied probabilities and EV move immediately with price; model probabilities in this snapshot do not update until the pipeline is re-run. Refresh after material line moves.

Why might 1X2 look unattractive while totals do not?

Tight 1X2 prices often embed a fair three-way split, so EV on match-winner can sit negative even when Over/Under or BTTS still diverges from the model — compare the 1X2 row on the market cards to O/U and BTTS.

What is the best-supported line in this snapshot?

Match the hero card above: if it says “Betting Primary Pick”, that leg cleared primary rules; if it says “Best +EV (tracked markets)”, it is the strongest +EV line that did not meet stricter Primary thresholds. The bullets below repeat the same model %, implied %, edge (pts), and EV % as that card.

Safer market than correct score?

Markets with more liquidity and smoother prices (often 1X2 or O/U 2.5 from many books) are usually easier to reason about than long-tail correct-score prices; still read EV on each leg.

• Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
• Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
• In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
• Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

• Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
• Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

June 16, 2026 (UTC)