Stenungsund vs Ahlafors Statistics & Analysis

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

• League: Division 2 - Norra Götaland
• Fixture: Stenungsund vs Ahlafors
• Kickoff: 2026-06-12 17:00:00
• 1X2 (model): Home 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.0%
• xG (showing): Stenungsund 1.22 — Ahlafors 1.38 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
• Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
• Model: 51.8% · Implied: 38.7% · Probability edge: +13.1 pts · Est. EV: +32.1%
• BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
• Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Primary angle highlighted on the page: Under 2.5 goals.

Model probability is compared to implied probability from odds to highlight a probability edge; EV uses the same model probability with the best decimal price tracked.

Edges shrink quickly if prices move; always re-check the number on your book.

What changes first if odds move?

Implied probabilities and EV move immediately with price; model probabilities in this snapshot do not update until the pipeline is re-run. Refresh after material line moves.

Safer market than correct score?

Markets with more liquidity and smoother prices (often 1X2 or O/U 2.5 from many books) are usually easier to reason about than long-tail correct-score prices; still read EV on each leg.

How should I read EV versus a probability gap?

Probability edge = model probability minus implied probability (reported here in percentage points). EV ≈ model probability × best tracked decimal odds − 1, shown as return per unit stake. They are related but not interchangeable labels.

Who has the edge in the match-winner market?

Use the 1X2 model percentages in the summary and the 1X2 market card: the side with the highest model % is the model lean, but check EV — a lean can still be -EV after prices.

• Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
• Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
• In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
• Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

• Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
• Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

June 15, 2026 (UTC)