Statistics / Football / Lebanon. Premier League / Reyady Abaseya vs Safa

Reyady Abaseya vs Safa Statistics & Analysis

Reyady Abaseya Reyady Abaseya
Jun 20, 2026 - 13:00
2 0.95
4 1.22
xG Accuracy: 35%
Safa Safa
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Safa Safa ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-0, 1-0, 0-2 2-4 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 23:41 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2096279

Closing Odds 1.75
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Safa win · Reyady Abaseya 2–4 Safa
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 4.21 percentage points on Safa (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Reyady Abaseya (1X2) by about 5.6 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Reyady Abaseya (1X2) 26.3 20.7 +5.6
Draw (1X2) 31.9 28.0 +3.9
Safa (1X2) 41.8 51.2 -9.5
Over 2.5 goals 36.9 37.5 -0.6
Under 2.5 goals 63.1 62.5 +0.6
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 26.3% on Reyady Abaseya (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 20.7%. The difference — about 5.6 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Bet365

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Reyady Abaseya (1X2) 3.75 4.33 -3.2
Draw (1X2) 3.1 3.2 -1.0
Safa (1X2) 1.91 1.75 +4.2
Over 2.5 goals 2.5 2.5 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.5 1.5 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Premier League
  • Fixture: Reyady Abaseya vs Safa
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-20 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 26.3% · Draw 31.9% · Away 41.8%
  • xG (showing): Reyady Abaseya 0.95 — Safa 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.17)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 44.9% · Implied: 41.0% · Probability edge: +3.9 pts · Est. EV: +3.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Premier League Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Al Ansar 21 17 2 2 53
2 Al Nejmeh 21 14 4 3 46
3 Al Ahed 21 13 1 7 40
4 Jwaaya FC 21 11 5 5 38
5 Safa 21 11 3 7 36
6 Al Hikma 21 9 3 9 30
7 Shabab Al Sahel 21 7 6 8 27
8 Al Mabarrah 21 5 7 9 22
9 Reyady Abaseya 21 5 5 11 20
10 Tadamon Sour 21 3 8 10 17
11 Bourj 11 3 1 7 10
12 Racing 21 0 1 20 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Al Ansar 21 53 9 +44 53
2 Al Nejmeh 21 42 10 +32 46
3 Al Ahed 21 34 22 +12 40
4 Jwaaya FC 21 31 14 +17 38
5 Safa 21 30 17 +13 36
6 Al Hikma 21 29 27 +2 30
7 Shabab Al Sahel 21 22 21 +1 27
8 Reyady Abaseya 21 16 30 -14 20
9 Tadamon Sour 21 12 26 -14 17
10 Al Mabarrah 21 12 36 -24 22
11 Bourj 11 8 20 -12 10
12 Racing 21 4 61 -57 1