Telavi vs Samtredia Statistics & Analysis

Telavi

Sep 07, 2026 - 16:00

0 1.31

3 1.29

xG Accuracy: 44%

Samtredia

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Telavi Samtredia ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 01, 2026 · 02:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6472912

Closing Odds 2.01

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Samtredia win · Telavi 0–3 Samtredia

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Samtredia (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Samtredia (1X2) by about 7.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Telavi (1X2)	35.6	44.2	-8.6
Draw (1X2)	29.7	28.9	+0.8
Samtredia (1X2)	34.7	26.9	+7.8
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	44.8	+3.4
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	55.2	-3.4

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.7% on Samtredia (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 26.9%. The difference — about 7.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Telavi (1X2)	2.01	2.01
Draw (1X2)	3.08	3.08
Samtredia (1X2)	3.3	3.3
Over 2.5 goals	2.06	2.06
Under 2.5 goals	1.67	1.67

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Erovnuli Liga 2
Fixture: Telavi vs Samtredia
Kickoff: 2026-09-07 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
xG (showing): Telavi 1.31 — Samtredia 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.9%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Erovnuli Liga 2 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Gareji	25	13	8	4	47
2	Telavi	25	11	8	6	41
3	Shturmi	25	10	9	6	39
4	Merani Martvili	25	9	7	9	34
5	Samtredia	25	10	4	11	34
6	Sioni	25	8	9	8	33
7	Aragvi Dusheti	25	9	5	11	32
8	Odishi 1919	25	7	7	11	28
9	Gori	25	6	8	11	26
10	Kolkheti Poti	25	5	9	11	24

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Samtredia	25	43	39	+4	34
2	Gareji	25	33	26	+7	47
3	Sioni	25	33	30	+3	33
4	Kolkheti Poti	25	32	32	0	24
5	Merani Martvili	25	28	28	0	34
6	Aragvi Dusheti	25	28	35	-7	32
7	Shturmi	25	27	22	+5	39
8	Telavi	25	27	23	+4	41
9	Odishi 1919	25	27	36	-9	28
10	Gori	25	25	32	-7	26