Predictions / Football / Georgia. Erovnuli Liga 2 / Sioni vs Aragvi Dusheti

Prediction Audit: Sioni vs Aragvi Dusheti Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sioni Sioni
Sep 20, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.39
2 1.21
xG Accuracy: 72%
Aragvi Dusheti Aragvi Dusheti

The model missed the final outcome (Aragvi Dusheti win 1–2).

The model had projected Sioni at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Sioni Aragvi Dusheti ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Sioni higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Sioni -10.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Sioni 39.5% 50.4% -10.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 26.1% +3.4 pp Aligned
Aragvi Dusheti 31.0% 23.5% +7.5 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Sioni's win probability at 50.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.5%, a difference of 10.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Aragvi Dusheti win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Sioni than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Sioni by 10.9 percentage points (50.4% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 20, 2026 · 15:01 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Sioni 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Aragvi Dusheti 31.0%
    • xG · Sioni 1.39 — Aragvi Dusheti 1.21
  2. Sep 20, 2026 · 14:36 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Sioni 1.76 · Draw 3.40 · Aragvi Dusheti 3.77
    • Implied 1X2 · Sioni 50.4% · Draw 26.1% · Aragvi Dusheti 23.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 20, 2026 · 15:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Sioni 1.76 · Draw 3.40 · Aragvi Dusheti 3.77
    • Implied 1X2 · Sioni 50.4% · Draw 26.1% · Aragvi Dusheti 23.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 20, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Aragvi Dusheti win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 45/100
Betting Confidence 46/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8692688

Closing Odds 1.76
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Aragvi Dusheti win · Sioni 1–2 Aragvi Dusheti
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Erovnuli Liga 2
  • Fixture: Sioni vs Aragvi Dusheti
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
  • xG (showing): Sioni 1.39 — Aragvi Dusheti 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 46.2% · Probability edge: +5.6 pts · Est. EV: +6.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Erovnuli Liga 2 Matches Track Sioni Next Match Prediction Track Aragvi Dusheti Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Sioni & Aragvi Dusheti!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Erovnuli Liga 2 Erovnuli Liga 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Gareji 27 14 8 5 50
2 Telavi 27 11 10 6 43
3 Shturmi 27 11 10 6 43
4 Merani Martvili 27 10 7 10 37
5 Samtredia 27 11 4 12 37
6 Aragvi Dusheti 27 10 5 12 35
7 Sioni 27 8 9 10 33
8 Odishi 1919 27 8 8 11 32
9 Kolkheti Poti 27 6 10 11 28
10 Gori 27 6 9 12 27
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Samtredia 27 48 40 +8 37
2 Gareji 27 35 28 +7 50
3 Sioni 27 35 34 +1 33
4 Kolkheti Poti 27 34 33 +1 28
5 Merani Martvili 27 30 34 -4 37
6 Aragvi Dusheti 27 30 37 -7 35
7 Shturmi 27 29 23 +6 43
8 Telavi 27 29 25 +4 43
9 Odishi 1919 27 29 37 -8 32
10 Gori 27 27 35 -8 27