Statistics / Football / Sweden. Ettan - Södra / Olympic vs AFC Malmo

Olympic vs AFC Malmo Statistics & Analysis

Olympic Olympic
Aug 15, 2026 - 11:00
2 1.31
2 1.29
xG Accuracy: 68%
⚽
AFC Malmo
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Olympic Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 01:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3341283

Closing Odds 2.15
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Olympic 2–2 AFC Malmo
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Olympic (1X2), Draw (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 14.4 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Olympic (1X2) 35.6 32.3 +3.3
Draw (1X2) 29.7 25.1 +4.6
AFC Malmo (1X2) 34.7 42.6 -7.9
Over 2.5 goals 48.2 62.6 -14.4
Under 2.5 goals 51.8 37.4 +14.4
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 37.4%. The difference — about 14.4 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Olympic (1X2) 2.84 2.84 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.65 3.65 0.0
AFC Malmo (1X2) 2.15 2.15 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.49 1.49 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.49 2.49 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Ettan - Södra
  • Fixture: Olympic vs AFC Malmo
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): Olympic 1.31 — AFC Malmo 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 36.9% · Probability edge: +14.9 pts · Est. EV: +34.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 24, 2026 (UTC)

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Ettan - Södra Ettan - Södra — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 trelleborgs FF 23 14 6 3 48
2 Hässleholms IF 23 13 3 7 42
3 Atvidabergs FF 23 12 6 5 42
4 Lund 23 11 8 4 41
5 AFC Malmo 23 9 8 6 35
6 Rosengård 23 9 8 6 35
7 Trollhättan 23 9 7 7 34
8 Jonkopings Sodra 23 9 6 8 33
9 Tvååker 23 9 6 8 33
10 Olympic 23 9 3 11 30
11 Eskilsminne 23 8 5 10 29
12 Skövde AIK 23 6 9 8 27
13 Kristianstad 23 6 6 11 24
14 Laholm 23 6 4 13 22
15 Angelholms FF 23 3 9 11 18
16 Utsikten 23 1 6 16 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 trelleborgs FF 23 49 27 +22 48
2 Lund 23 46 27 +19 41
3 Atvidabergs FF 23 46 33 +13 42
4 Hässleholms IF 23 43 27 +16 42
5 AFC Malmo 23 42 34 +8 35
6 Olympic 23 40 44 -4 30
7 Rosengård 23 39 33 +6 35
8 Eskilsminne 23 38 42 -4 29
9 Trollhättan 23 37 34 +3 34
10 Tvååker 23 30 33 -3 33
11 Laholm 23 30 41 -11 22
12 Jonkopings Sodra 23 29 22 +7 33
13 Kristianstad 23 28 36 -8 24
14 Angelholms FF 23 27 43 -16 18
15 Skövde AIK 23 26 35 -9 27
16 Utsikten 23 18 57 -39 9
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