AFC Malmo vs Olympic Statistics & Analysis

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AFC Malmo

Jun 21, 2026 - 14:00

1 1.33

2 1.27

xG Accuracy: 75%

Olympic

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 AFC Malmo Olympic ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 31, 2026 · 22:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2655894

Closing Odds 1.66

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Olympic win · AFC Malmo 1–2 Olympic

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Olympic (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 15.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
AFC Malmo (1X2)	36.6	55.2	-18.6
Draw (1X2)	29.6	22.2	+7.4
Olympic (1X2)	33.8	22.6	+11.2
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	63.2	-15.1
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	36.8	+15.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 51.8% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 36.8%. The difference — about 15.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
AFC Malmo (1X2)	1.66	1.66
Draw (1X2)	4.12	4.12
Olympic (1X2)	4.06	4.06
Over 2.5 goals	1.47	1.47
Under 2.5 goals	2.53	2.53

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Ettan - Södra
Fixture: AFC Malmo vs Olympic
Kickoff: 2026-06-21 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
xG (showing): AFC Malmo 1.33 — Olympic 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 25, 2026 (UTC)

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Ettan - Södra — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	trelleborgs FF	23	14	6	3	48
2	Hässleholms IF	23	13	3	7	42
3	Atvidabergs FF	23	12	6	5	42
4	Lund	23	11	8	4	41
5	AFC Malmo	23	9	8	6	35
6	Rosengård	23	9	8	6	35
7	Trollhättan	23	9	7	7	34
8	Jonkopings Sodra	23	9	6	8	33
9	Tvååker	23	9	6	8	33
10	Olympic	23	9	3	11	30
11	Eskilsminne	23	8	5	10	29
12	Skövde AIK	23	6	9	8	27
13	Kristianstad	23	6	6	11	24
14	Laholm	23	6	4	13	22
15	Angelholms FF	23	3	9	11	18
16	Utsikten	23	1	6	16	9

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	trelleborgs FF	23	49	27	+22	48
2	Lund	23	46	27	+19	41
3	Atvidabergs FF	23	46	33	+13	42
4	Hässleholms IF	23	43	27	+16	42
5	AFC Malmo	23	42	34	+8	35
6	Olympic	23	40	44	-4	30
7	Rosengård	23	39	33	+6	35
8	Eskilsminne	23	38	42	-4	29
9	Trollhättan	23	37	34	+3	34
10	Tvååker	23	30	33	-3	33
11	Laholm	23	30	41	-11	22
12	Jonkopings Sodra	23	29	22	+7	33
13	Kristianstad	23	28	36	-8	24
14	Angelholms FF	23	27	43	-16	18
15	Skövde AIK	23	26	35	-9	27
16	Utsikten	23	18	57	-39	9