Arsenal Sarandi vs Excursionistas Statistics & Analysis

Arsenal Sarandi

Aug 29, 2026 - 18:00

3 1.34

0 1.26

xG Accuracy: 45%

Excursionistas

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Arsenal Sarandi Arsenal Sarandi ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 04:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5161996

Closing Odds 3.22

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Arsenal Sarandi win · Arsenal Sarandi 3–0 Excursionistas

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE5 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Excursionistas (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 11.1 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Arsenal Sarandi (1X2)	37.0	39.9	-2.8
Draw (1X2)	29.6	32.0	-2.4
Excursionistas (1X2)	33.4	28.1	+5.2
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	37.1	+11.1
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	62.9	-11.1

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 48.2% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 37.1%. The difference — about 11.1 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE5 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE5)
Arsenal Sarandi (1X2)	2.27	2.27
Draw (1X2)	2.83	2.83
Excursionistas (1X2)	3.22	3.22
Over 2.5 goals	2.49	2.49
Under 2.5 goals	1.47	1.47

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Primera B Metropolitana
Fixture: Arsenal Sarandi vs Excursionistas
Kickoff: 2026-08-29 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
xG (showing): Arsenal Sarandi 1.34 — Excursionistas 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
Model: 54.5% · Implied: 45.6% · Probability edge: +8.9 pts · Est. EV: +14.4%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera B Metropolitana — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Excursionistas	35	20	8	7	68
2	Arsenal Sarandi	35	18	12	5	66
3	Deportivo Camioneros	35	17	12	6	63
4	Talleres Remedios	35	18	9	8	63
5	Villa Dalmine	35	16	12	7	60
6	Sportivo Italiano	35	16	10	9	58
7	Real Pilar	35	15	10	10	55
8	Deportivo Armenio	35	14	9	12	51
9	Comunicaciones	35	13	11	11	50
10	Deportivo Laferrere	35	12	12	11	48
11	San Martín Burzaco	35	10	14	11	44
12	Dock Sud	35	10	13	12	43
13	Argentino de Merlo	35	10	11	14	41
14	Villa San Carlos	35	9	13	13	40
15	Liniers	35	9	13	13	40
16	Argentino Quilmes	35	9	13	13	40
17	Deportivo Merlo	35	9	13	13	40
18	Flandria	35	10	8	17	38
19	Defensores Unidos	35	8	13	14	37
20	Brown DE Adrogue	35	7	13	15	34
21	UAI Urquiza	35	4	19	12	31
22	Ituzaingó	35	1	12	22	15

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Excursionistas	35	54	28	+26	68
2	Arsenal Sarandi	35	47	22	+25	66
3	Deportivo Laferrere	35	42	45	-3	48
4	Deportivo Camioneros	35	41	22	+19	63
5	Sportivo Italiano	35	41	27	+14	58
6	Real Pilar	35	38	34	+4	55
7	Dock Sud	35	38	38	0	43
8	Talleres Remedios	35	37	19	+18	63
9	Comunicaciones	35	36	33	+3	50
10	Deportivo Armenio	35	36	37	-1	51
11	Villa Dalmine	35	35	20	+15	60
12	Villa San Carlos	35	35	39	-4	40
13	Deportivo Merlo	35	34	49	-15	40
14	San Martín Burzaco	35	33	36	-3	44
15	Defensores Unidos	35	31	36	-5	37
16	Flandria	35	31	43	-12	38
17	Argentino de Merlo	35	30	35	-5	41
18	Liniers	35	29	35	-6	40
19	Argentino Quilmes	35	29	36	-7	40
20	Ituzaingó	35	22	55	-33	15
21	Brown DE Adrogue	35	21	37	-16	34
22	UAI Urquiza	35	17	31	-14	31