1X2 Model EV
- Lean
- Excursionistas
- Model probability
- 35.6%
- Market probability
- 49.0%
- Difference
- -13.5 pp
- Risk-adjusted EV (P1.5)
- -21.8%
No Value Edge
UAI Urquiza vs Excursionistas Prediction
Model lean is not a Primary bet — one answer only below.
No Primary Bet
4.4/10
OddsGPT AI Confidence Score measures prediction reliability using AI probability, market signals, xG data, and performance indicators. A higher score reflects stronger model confidence and data support, helping users identify higher-quality opportunities.
OddsGPT AI Confidence Score measures prediction reliability using AI probability, market signals, xG data, and performance indicators. A higher score reflects stronger model confidence and data support, helping users identify higher-quality opportunities.
Reason
Market Quality Risk
Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).
Other factors
- Calibration Risk
Consensus EV
+22.6%
Calculated using a market-adjusted probability. The model probability is partially adjusted toward market expectation to reduce false positives.
Decision Model vs Market Gap
13.5 pp
Difference between the Decision Model probability and the no-vig market probability for the selected outcome.
Reliability
63/100 · Moderate
Reliability measures the quality of the prediction signal. It considers: • model validation • market alignment • data quality • bookmaker coverage • market movement consistency It does not represent the probability of winning.
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Prediction Overview
Base Prediction Model
These probabilities are generated from the base xG scoring simulation (Poisson model). They show the expected match outcome distribution before decision-layer calibration.
These probabilities are generated from the base xG scoring simulation (Poisson model). They show the expected match outcome distribution before decision-layer calibration.
Raw match outcome probabilities from the xG-based scoring model.
Decision Model vs Market
The Decision Model applies additional calibration (including low-score correlation adjustments) to produce the probability used by the Decision Engine for value calculation, EV estimation, and Primary Bet decisions.
The Decision Model applies additional calibration (including low-score correlation adjustments) to produce the probability used by the Decision Engine for value calculation, EV estimation, and Primary Bet decisions.
| Decision Model | 35.6% |
| Market (no-vig) | 49.0% |
| Difference | +13.5 pp |
No decisive market alignment yet
Why Is The Bet Blocked?
Positive factors
- ✓Risk-adjusted EV passes Primary threshold (≥ +5.0%)+22.6%
- ✓Clear directional model signal: Excursionistas
Risk factors
- ✗Elevated xG uncertaintyModel confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty
- ✗Outlier price excluded from Primary+48% EV → consensus +22.6%
Market Intelligence
No market-move signal tracked for this fixture yet.
Market Decisions (Model vs Market)
Each card compares the model probability with the no-vig (or best available) market price, then shows a risk-adjusted or raw EV.
Positive EV is a pricing signal, not a Primary bet instruction.
Each card compares the model probability with the no-vig (or best available) market price, then shows a risk-adjusted or raw EV. Positive EV is a pricing signal, not a Primary bet instruction.
Over / Under 2.5
- Lean
- Over 2.5
- Model probability (Over)
- 48.2%
- Market probability (Over)
- 37.5%
- Difference
- +10.7 pp
- Risk-adjusted EV
- -5.1%
No Value Edge
Total Goals (Model)
BTTS (Yes)
- Lean
- Yes
- Model probability
- 54.5%
- Market probability
- 42.1%
- Difference
- +12.4 pp
- Risk-adjusted EV
- -3.8%
No Value Edge
BTTS Yes 54.5%
BTTS No 45.5%
Correct Score
- Top Score
- 1-1
- Model probability (1-1)
- 12.6%
- Market probability (1-1)
- 15.4%
- Difference
- -2.8 pp
- EV @ Market Odds
- -18.1%
No Value
Top 5 Model Scores
- 1-1 12.6%
- 0-1 9.7%
- 1-0 9.6%
- 1-2 8.2%
- 2-1 8.1%
Match Phase: Upcoming
Decision Lifecycle
Current stage: Market monitoring
-
Prediction Generated
-
Market ComparedEntry 4.2
-
Validation Passed
-
Closing RecordedClosing Waiting Expected before kickoff
-
CLV EvaluatedCLV Pending
Final Verdict
No Primary Bet
The Decision Model estimates Excursionistas at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.0%.
Decision Summary
- Decision Model identifies Excursionistas as the value side (35.6%)
- No decisive market conflict on direction
- Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary
- Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty
Action
Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.
OddsGPT Decision Engine 2.5.0 · Educational framing only · Not personalised advice
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