Almagro vs Agropecuario Statistics & Analysis

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

• League: Primera Nacional
• Fixture: Almagro vs Agropecuario
• Kickoff: 2026-06-13 18:30:00
• 1X2 (model): Home 31.0% · Draw 30.4% · Away 38.6%
• xG (showing): Almagro 1.19 — Agropecuario 1.41 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
• Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
• Model: 48.2% · Implied: 33.1% · Probability edge: +15.1 pts · Est. EV: +49.4%
• BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
• Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

The engine’s headline primary is: Over 2.5 goals.

We separate probability edge (model minus implied, in points of probability) from estimated EV (economic edge at the best price shown on the page).

When several markets sit near +EV, keep stakes small — correlation means edges do not add cleanly.

Safer market than correct score?

Markets with more liquidity and smoother prices (often 1X2 or O/U 2.5 from many books) are usually easier to reason about than long-tail correct-score prices; still read EV on each leg.

Why might 1X2 look unattractive while totals do not?

Tight 1X2 prices often embed a fair three-way split, so EV on match-winner can sit negative even when Over/Under or BTTS still diverges from the model — compare the 1X2 row on the market cards to O/U and BTTS.

Who has the edge in the match-winner market?

Use the 1X2 model percentages in the summary and the 1X2 market card: the side with the highest model % is the model lean, but check EV — a lean can still be -EV after prices.

What changes first if odds move?

Implied probabilities and EV move immediately with price; model probabilities in this snapshot do not update until the pipeline is re-run. Refresh after material line moves.

• Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
• Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
• In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
• Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

• Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
• Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

June 16, 2026 (UTC)