Bokelj vs Arsenal Tivat Statistics & Analysis

Bokelj

May 16, 2026 - 18:00

3 1.45

0 1.25

xG Accuracy: 46%

Arsenal Tivat

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Bokelj Bokelj ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: First League
Fixture: Bokelj vs Arsenal Tivat
Kickoff: 2026-05-16 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Bokelj 1.45 — Arsenal Tivat 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
Model: 63.4% · Implied: 52.6% · Probability edge: +10.8 pts · Est. EV: +11.6%
BTTS (model): Yes 36.6% · No 63.4%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (13.2%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Best Bet + Reason

The engine’s headline primary is: BTTS No.

We separate probability edge (model minus implied, in points of probability) from estimated EV (economic edge at the best price shown on the page).

No pick is a guarantee; variance is especially large in scoreline markets.

FAQ

Safer market than correct score?

Markets with more liquidity and smoother prices (often 1X2 or O/U 2.5 from many books) are usually easier to reason about than long-tail correct-score prices; still read EV on each leg.

How should I read EV versus a probability gap?

Probability edge = model probability minus implied probability (reported here in percentage points). EV ≈ model probability × best tracked decimal odds − 1, shown as return per unit stake. They are related but not interchangeable labels.

What changes first if odds move?

Implied probabilities and EV move immediately with price; model probabilities in this snapshot do not update until the pipeline is re-run. Refresh after material line moves.

Is the most likely correct score a good bet?

Usually no as a standalone bet: the “most likely” scoreline is still a low absolute probability tail event (often single digits, sometimes low teens). Use it as context; keep any correct-score stake in the “fun / small” bucket.

Risk Factors

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Methodology

Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

Last Updated

May 18, 2026 (UTC)

How to use this

Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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Back to Statistics

First League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Sutjeska	34	21	6	7	69
2	Mornar	34	19	8	7	65
3	Dečić	34	14	9	11	51
4	Petrovac	34	13	10	11	49
5	Buducnost Podgorica	34	12	8	14	44
6	Mladost DG	34	13	4	17	43
7	Arsenal Tivat	34	11	10	13	43
8	Jezero	34	10	11	13	41
9	Bokelj	34	7	12	15	33
10	Jedinstvo	34	7	8	19	29

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Sutjeska	34	59	33	+26	69
2	Mornar	34	48	28	+20	65
3	Mladost DG	34	45	52	-7	43
4	Petrovac	34	42	34	+8	49
5	Dečić	34	42	42	0	51
6	Jezero	34	38	44	-6	41
7	Bokelj	34	36	46	-10	33
8	Buducnost Podgorica	34	33	33	0	44
9	Arsenal Tivat	34	33	41	-8	43
10	Jedinstvo	34	25	48	-23	29