Statistics / Football / Norway. 3. Division - Girone 5 / Fløya vs Strømsgodset II

Fløya vs Strømsgodset II Statistics & Analysis

Fløya Fløya
Jun 21, 2026 - 13:00
4 1.32
0 1.28
xG Accuracy: 34%
Strømsgodset II Strømsgodset II
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Fløya Fløya ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 05:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1825592

Closing Odds 1.38
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Fløya win · Fløya 4–0 Strømsgodset II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): +37.5%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Strømsgodset II (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Strømsgodset II (1X2) by about 11.8 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Fløya (1X2) 44.6 65.2 -20.6
Draw (1X2) 26.4 17.6 +8.8
Strømsgodset II (1X2) 29.0 17.2 +11.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.0% on Strømsgodset II (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 17.2%. The difference — about 11.8 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Fløya (1X2) 1.38 1.38 0.0
Draw (1X2) 5.1 5.1 0.0
Strømsgodset II (1X2) 5.23 5.23 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 3. Division - Girone 5
  • Fixture: Fløya vs Strømsgodset II
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-21 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 44.6% · Draw 26.4% · Away 29.0%
  • xG (showing): Fløya 1.32 — Strømsgodset II 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.5%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
3. Division - Girone 5 3. Division - Girone 5 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Skedsmo 18 13 1 4 40
2 Harstad 19 11 3 5 36
3 Alta 19 9 6 4 33
4 Finnsnes 19 10 2 7 32
5 Fløya 18 9 3 6 30
6 Lillestrøm II 18 9 0 9 27
7 Fauske Sprint 18 7 4 7 25
8 Skjetten 17 7 3 7 24
9 Strømsgodset II 18 7 2 9 23
10 Kongsvinger II 18 7 2 9 23
11 Skjervøy 17 7 2 8 23
12 Tromsø II 18 4 5 9 17
13 Bossekop 18 4 3 11 15
14 Ulfstind 19 4 2 13 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Harstad 19 63 30 +33 36
2 Lillestrøm II 18 62 39 +23 27
3 Fauske Sprint 18 49 60 -11 25
4 Alta 19 44 28 +16 33
5 Fløya 18 44 29 +15 30
6 Skedsmo 18 39 23 +16 40
7 Skjetten 17 39 36 +3 24
8 Finnsnes 19 36 31 +5 32
9 Strømsgodset II 18 36 37 -1 23
10 Kongsvinger II 18 35 46 -11 23
11 Ulfstind 19 33 66 -33 14
12 Skjervøy 17 30 45 -15 23
13 Tromsø II 18 29 35 -6 17
14 Bossekop 18 29 63 -34 15
3. Division - Girone 5 Norway. 3. Division - Girone 5 Predictions