Prediction Audit: Tromsø II vs Kongsvinger II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Tromsø II

Sep 21, 2026 - 12:30

6 1.32

0 1.28

xG Accuracy: 19%

Kongsvinger II

AI correctly predicted the Tromsø II win.

The match finished 6–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Tromsø II Tromsø II ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 6-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Tromsø II	36.1%	53.4%	-17.3 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	20.9%	+8.7 pp	Model Higher
Kongsvinger II	34.2%	25.6%	+8.6 pp	Model Higher

The closing market estimates Tromsø II's win probability at 53.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 17.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Tromsø II win 6–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Tromsø II than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Tromsø II higher (53.4% vs model 36.1%, 17.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Tromsø II win 6–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 21, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Tromsø II 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Kongsvinger II 34.2%
- xG · Tromsø II 1.32 — Kongsvinger II 1.28
Sep 21, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Tromsø II 1.66 · Draw 4.24 · Kongsvinger II 3.46
- Implied 1X2 · Tromsø II 53.4% · Draw 20.9% · Kongsvinger II 25.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 21, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Tromsø II 1.66 · Draw 4.24 · Kongsvinger II 3.46
- Implied 1X2 · Tromsø II 53.4% · Draw 20.9% · Kongsvinger II 25.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 21, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Tromsø II win · 6–0
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (17 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 13/100

Betting Confidence 43/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 15, 2026 · 02:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8835479

Closing Odds 1.66

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Tromsø II win · Tromsø II 6–0 Kongsvinger II

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: 3. Division - Girone 5
Fixture: Tromsø II vs Kongsvinger II
Kickoff: 2026-09-21 12:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Tromsø II 1.32 — Kongsvinger II 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.2%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Division - Girone 5 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Skedsmo	21	16	1	4	49
2	Harstad	21	12	3	6	39
3	Fløya	21	12	3	6	39
4	Alta	21	11	6	4	39
5	Finnsnes	21	11	2	8	35
6	Skjetten	21	10	3	8	33
7	Fauske Sprint	21	9	4	8	31
8	Lillestrøm II	21	9	0	12	27
9	Kongsvinger II	21	8	2	11	26
10	Skjervøy	21	7	3	11	24
11	Tromsø II	21	6	5	10	23
12	Strømsgodset II	21	7	2	12	23
13	Bossekop	21	5	4	12	19
14	Ulfstind	21	4	2	15	14

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Lillestrøm II	21	68	53	+15	27
2	Harstad	21	67	33	+34	39
3	Fauske Sprint	21	58	68	-10	31
4	Fløya	21	56	33	+23	39
5	Alta	21	54	31	+23	39
6	Skjetten	21	52	42	+10	33
7	Skedsmo	21	50	25	+25	49
8	Strømsgodset II	21	41	48	-7	23
9	Tromsø II	21	40	38	+2	23
10	Finnsnes	21	39	34	+5	35
11	Kongsvinger II	21	38	58	-20	26
12	Ulfstind	21	36	77	-41	14
13	Bossekop	21	34	70	-36	19
14	Skjervøy	21	33	56	-23	24