Statistics / Football / Norway. 3. Division - Girone 5 / Strømsgodset II vs Harstad

Strømsgodset II vs Harstad Statistics & Analysis

Strømsgodset II Strømsgodset II
Jun 13, 2026 - 12:00
2 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 68%
Harstad Harstad
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Strømsgodset II Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 06:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1560694

Closing Odds 3.59
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Strømsgodset II 2–2 Harstad
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 4.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Strømsgodset II (1X2) 36.1 40.8 -4.7
Draw (1X2) 29.7 24.8 +4.9
Harstad (1X2) 34.2 34.5 -0.2
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 29.7% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 24.8%. The difference — about 4.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Strømsgodset II (1X2) 2.18 2.18 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.59 3.59 0.0
Harstad (1X2) 2.58 2.58 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 3. Division - Girone 5
  • Fixture: Strømsgodset II vs Harstad
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-13 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Strømsgodset II 1.32 — Harstad 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 27.6% · Probability edge: +24.2 pts · Est. EV: +86.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 22, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Division - Girone 5 3. Division - Girone 5 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Skedsmo 20 15 1 4 46
2 Harstad 20 12 3 5 39
3 Fløya 19 10 3 6 33
4 Alta 19 9 6 4 33
5 Finnsnes 19 10 2 7 32
6 Fauske Sprint 19 8 4 7 28
7 Lillestrøm II 19 9 0 10 27
8 Skjetten 19 8 3 8 27
9 Skjervøy 19 7 3 9 24
10 Strømsgodset II 19 7 2 10 23
11 Kongsvinger II 19 7 2 10 23
12 Bossekop 20 5 4 11 19
13 Tromsø II 19 4 5 10 17
14 Ulfstind 20 4 2 14 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Harstad 20 66 31 +35 39
2 Lillestrøm II 19 63 41 +22 27
3 Fauske Sprint 19 54 63 -9 28
4 Fløya 19 49 30 +19 33
5 Alta 19 44 28 +16 33
6 Skedsmo 20 43 25 +18 46
7 Skjetten 19 43 41 +2 27
8 Strømsgodset II 19 39 42 -3 23
9 Finnsnes 19 36 31 +5 32
10 Kongsvinger II 19 36 51 -15 23
11 Ulfstind 20 36 70 -34 14
12 Bossekop 20 34 67 -33 19
13 Skjervøy 19 32 48 -16 24
14 Tromsø II 19 31 38 -7 17
3. Division - Girone 5 Norway. 3. Division - Girone 5 Predictions