Prediction Audit: Fauske Sprint vs Tromsø II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

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Fauske Sprint

Sep 27, 2026 - 11:30

0 1.32

3 1.28

xG Accuracy: 43%

Tromsø II

The model missed the final outcome (Tromsø II win 0–3).

The model had projected Fauske Sprint at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Fauske Sprint Tromsø II ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Fauske Sprint	36.1%	28.9%	+7.2 pp	Model Higher
Draw	29.6%	20.4%	+9.2 pp	Model Higher
Tromsø II	34.2%	50.7%	-16.5 pp	Market Higher

The closing market estimates Tromsø II's win probability at 50.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 16.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Tromsø II win 0–3.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Tromsø II than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Fauske Sprint by 16.5 percentage points (52.6% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 27, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Fauske Sprint 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Tromsø II 34.2%
- xG · Fauske Sprint 1.32 — Tromsø II 1.28
Sep 27, 2026 · 11:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Fauske Sprint 3.07 · Draw 4.35 · Tromsø II 1.75
- Implied 1X2 · Fauske Sprint 28.9% · Draw 20.4% · Tromsø II 50.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 27, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Fauske Sprint 3.07 · Draw 4.35 · Tromsø II 1.75
- Implied 1X2 · Fauske Sprint 28.9% · Draw 20.4% · Tromsø II 50.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 27, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Tromsø II win · 0–3
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (16 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 5/100

Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10085966

Closing Odds 1.75

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Tromsø II win · Fauske Sprint 0–3 Tromsø II

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: 3. Division - Girone 5
Fixture: Fauske Sprint vs Tromsø II
Kickoff: 2026-09-27 11:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Fauske Sprint 1.32 — Tromsø II 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Division - Girone 5 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Skedsmo	21	16	1	4	49
2	Harstad	21	12	3	6	39
3	Fløya	21	12	3	6	39
4	Alta	21	11	6	4	39
5	Finnsnes	21	11	2	8	35
6	Skjetten	21	10	3	8	33
7	Fauske Sprint	21	9	4	8	31
8	Lillestrøm II	21	9	0	12	27
9	Kongsvinger II	21	8	2	11	26
10	Skjervøy	21	7	3	11	24
11	Tromsø II	21	6	5	10	23
12	Strømsgodset II	21	7	2	12	23
13	Bossekop	21	5	4	12	19
14	Ulfstind	21	4	2	15	14

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Lillestrøm II	21	68	53	+15	27
2	Harstad	21	67	33	+34	39
3	Fauske Sprint	21	58	68	-10	31
4	Fløya	21	56	33	+23	39
5	Alta	21	54	31	+23	39
6	Skjetten	21	52	42	+10	33
7	Skedsmo	21	50	25	+25	49
8	Strømsgodset II	21	41	48	-7	23
9	Tromsø II	21	40	38	+2	23
10	Finnsnes	21	39	34	+5	35
11	Kongsvinger II	21	38	58	-20	26
12	Ulfstind	21	36	77	-41	14
13	Bossekop	21	34	70	-36	19
14	Skjervøy	21	33	56	-23	24