Statistics / Football / Norway. 3. Division - Girone 4 / Flekkerøy vs Åkra

Flekkerøy vs Åkra Statistics & Analysis

Flekkerøy Flekkerøy
Jun 26, 2026 - 16:00
3 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 58%
Åkra Åkra
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Flekkerøy Flekkerøy ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 13:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1872001

Closing Odds 1.12
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Flekkerøy win · Flekkerøy 3–1 Åkra
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Åkra (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Åkra (1X2) by about 25.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Flekkerøy (1X2) 36.1 79.3 -43.2
Draw (1X2) 29.7 11.7 +17.9
Åkra (1X2) 34.2 8.9 +25.3
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.2% on Åkra (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 8.9%. The difference — about 25.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Flekkerøy (1X2) 1.12 1.12 0.0
Draw (1X2) 7.57 7.57 0.0
Åkra (1X2) 9.92 9.92 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Flekkerøy; market prices Flekkerøy instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Flekkerøy 1.32 xG vs Åkra 1.28 → Flekkerøy 36.1%
  • Market: Flekkerøy ~79.3% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Division - Girone 4 3. Division - Girone 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Madla 20 12 6 2 42
2 Mandalskameratene 20 11 4 5 37
3 Varhaug 21 10 6 5 36
4 Vindbjart 20 11 2 7 35
5 Flekkerøy 20 10 3 7 33
6 Viking II 20 9 5 6 32
7 Brodd 20 8 3 9 27
8 Stabæk II 20 8 3 9 27
9 Våg 20 7 2 11 23
10 Odd II 20 6 5 9 23
11 Staal Jørpeland 21 6 5 10 23
12 Haugesund II 20 6 4 10 22
13 Hinna 20 5 5 10 20
14 Åkra 20 4 3 13 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Madla 20 51 26 +25 42
2 Viking II 20 50 28 +22 32
3 Vindbjart 20 47 24 +23 35
4 Mandalskameratene 20 46 33 +13 37
5 Stabæk II 20 42 46 -4 27
6 Flekkerøy 20 41 34 +7 33
7 Staal Jørpeland 21 41 52 -11 23
8 Varhaug 21 40 30 +10 36
9 Brodd 20 39 40 -1 27
10 Haugesund II 20 37 55 -18 22
11 Odd II 20 36 45 -9 23
12 Hinna 20 36 57 -21 20
13 Våg 20 29 36 -7 23
14 Åkra 20 27 56 -29 15
3. Division - Girone 4 Norway. 3. Division - Girone 4 Predictions