Predictions / Football / Norway. 3. Division - Girone 4 / Stabæk II vs Flekkerøy

Prediction Audit: Stabæk II vs Flekkerøy Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Stabæk II Stabæk II
Sep 27, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.29
2 1.31
xG Accuracy: 76%
Flekkerøy Flekkerøy

AI correctly predicted the Flekkerøy win.

The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Flekkerøy Flekkerøy ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Stabæk II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Stabæk II -6.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Stabæk II 34.7% 41.6% -6.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 23.3% +6.4 pp Model Higher
Flekkerøy 35.6% 35.1% +0.5 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Stabæk II's win probability at 41.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 6.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Flekkerøy win 1–2).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Stabæk II. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Flekkerøy higher (42.5% vs model 35.6%, 6.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Flekkerøy win 1–2).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 27, 2026 · 13:55 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Stabæk II 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Flekkerøy 35.6%
    • xG · Stabæk II 1.29 — Flekkerøy 1.31
  2. Sep 27, 2026 · 13:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Stabæk II 2.14 · Draw 3.82 · Flekkerøy 2.53
    • Implied 1X2 · Stabæk II 41.6% · Draw 23.3% · Flekkerøy 35.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 27, 2026 · 13:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Stabæk II 2.14 · Draw 3.82 · Flekkerøy 2.53
    • Implied 1X2 · Stabæk II 41.6% · Draw 23.3% · Flekkerøy 35.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 27, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Flekkerøy win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 22/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10097303

Closing Odds 2.14
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Flekkerøy win · Stabæk II 1–2 Flekkerøy
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 3. Division - Girone 4
  • Fixture: Stabæk II vs Flekkerøy
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-27 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Stabæk II 1.29 — Flekkerøy 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS No
  • Model: 45.5% · Implied: 26.8% · Probability edge: +18.7 pts · Est. EV: +59.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming 3. Division - Girone 4 Matches Track Stabæk II Next Match Prediction Track Flekkerøy Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Stabæk II & Flekkerøy!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
3. Division - Girone 4 3. Division - Girone 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Madla 21 13 6 2 45
2 Mandalskameratene 21 12 4 5 40
3 Vindbjart 21 12 2 7 38
4 Varhaug 21 10 6 5 36
5 Flekkerøy 21 11 3 7 36
6 Viking II 21 9 5 7 32
7 Brodd 21 8 3 10 27
8 Stabæk II 21 8 3 10 27
9 Våg 21 8 2 11 26
10 Staal Jørpeland 21 6 5 10 23
11 Odd II 21 6 5 10 23
12 Haugesund II 20 6 4 10 22
13 Hinna 20 5 5 10 20
14 Åkra 21 4 3 14 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Madla 21 57 26 +31 45
2 Viking II 21 51 30 +21 32
3 Mandalskameratene 21 50 33 +17 40
4 Vindbjart 21 49 24 +25 38
5 Flekkerøy 21 43 35 +8 36
6 Stabæk II 21 43 48 -5 27
7 Staal Jørpeland 21 41 52 -11 23
8 Varhaug 21 40 30 +10 36
9 Brodd 21 39 42 -3 27
10 Haugesund II 20 37 55 -18 22
11 Odd II 21 36 49 -13 23
12 Hinna 20 36 57 -21 20
13 Våg 21 31 37 -6 26
14 Åkra 21 27 62 -35 15
3. Division - Girone 4 Norway. 3. Division - Girone 4 Predictions