Statistics / Football / Sweden. Damallsvenskan / Malmö FF W vs Piteå W

Malmö FF W vs Piteå W Statistics & Analysis

Malmö FF W Malmö FF W
Jul 31, 2026 - 16:00
0 3.02
0 2.09
xG Accuracy: 24%
Piteå W Piteå W
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Malmö FF W Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 3-2, 2-2, 3-1, 2-1, 4-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 02:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1672284

Closing Odds 1.26
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Malmö FF W 0–0 Piteå W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Piteå W (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Over 2.5 goals by about 26.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Malmö FF W (1X2) 56.8 72.8 -16.0
Draw (1X2) 17.8 17.2 +0.6
Piteå W (1X2) 25.4 10.1 +15.4
Over 2.5 goals 88.4 61.7 +26.7
Under 2.5 goals 11.6 38.3 -26.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 88.4% on Over 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 61.7%. The difference — about 26.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Malmö FF W (1X2) 1.26 1.26 0.0
Draw (1X2) 5.34 5.34 0.0
Piteå W (1X2) 9.11 9.11 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.51 1.51 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.43 2.43 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Damallsvenskan
  • Fixture: Malmö FF W vs Piteå W
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-31 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 56.8% · Draw 17.8% · Away 25.4%
  • xG (showing): Malmö FF W 3.02 — Piteå W 2.09 (total xG ≈ 5.11)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 11.6% · Over 2.5 88.4%); BTTS Yes (Yes 83.9% · No 16.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 83.9% · No 16.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 3-2 (6.1%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 22, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Damallsvenskan Damallsvenskan — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Häcken 19 17 1 1 52
2 Hammarby 19 15 2 2 47
3 Malmö FF W 19 10 6 3 36
4 AIK 19 9 4 6 31
5 Kristianstad 18 8 4 6 28
6 Eskilstuna United 19 8 3 8 27
7 Vittsjö 19 7 5 7 26
8 Brommapojkarna W 19 8 2 9 26
9 Piteå W 18 6 4 8 22
10 Djurgården 19 5 3 11 18
11 Växjö 19 5 3 11 18
12 Rosengård W 18 4 5 9 17
13 Norrköping W 18 2 7 9 13
14 Uppsala W 19 1 3 15 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Häcken 19 55 13 +42 52
2 Hammarby 19 46 10 +36 47
3 Malmö FF W 19 38 11 +27 36
4 Kristianstad 18 30 27 +3 28
5 AIK 19 26 27 -1 31
6 Brommapojkarna W 19 25 33 -8 26
7 Vittsjö 19 24 25 -1 26
8 Växjö 19 23 37 -14 18
9 Piteå W 18 21 26 -5 22
10 Djurgården 19 21 32 -11 18
11 Rosengård W 18 19 23 -4 17
12 Eskilstuna United 19 18 22 -4 27
13 Norrköping W 18 15 28 -13 13
14 Uppsala W 19 13 60 -47 6
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Hammarby 19 2.9 2.2 +0.7 47
2 AIK 19 2.2 2.9 -0.7 31
3 Häcken 19 — — — 52
4 Malmö FF W 19 — — — 36
5 Kristianstad 18 — — — 28
6 Eskilstuna United 19 — — — 27
7 Vittsjö 19 — — — 26
8 Brommapojkarna W 19 — — — 26
9 Piteå W 18 — — — 22
10 Djurgården 19 — — — 18
11 Växjö 19 — — — 18
12 Rosengård W 18 — — — 17
13 Norrköping W 18 — — — 13
14 Uppsala W 19 — — — 6
Damallsvenskan Sweden. Damallsvenskan Predictions