Predictions / Football / Sweden. Damallsvenskan / Uppsala W vs Djurgården

Prediction Audit: Uppsala W vs Djurgården Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Uppsala W Uppsala W
Sep 26, 2026 - 13:00
1 2.43
4 2.68
xG Accuracy: 47%
Djurgården Djurgården

AI correctly predicted the Djurgården win.

The match finished 1–4, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Djurgården Djurgården ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-2, 2-3, 1-2, 3-2, 2-1 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Djurgården higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Djurgården -20.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Uppsala W 25.1% 8.7% +16.4 pp Model Edge
Draw 18.8% 14.4% +4.4 pp Aligned
Djurgården 56.1% 76.9% -20.8 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Djurgården's win probability at 76.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 56.1%, a difference of 20.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Djurgården win 1–4).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 5.11) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Djurgården higher (76.9% vs model 56.1%, 20.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Djurgården win 1–4).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 26, 2026 · 19:13 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Uppsala W 25.1% · Draw 18.8% · Djurgården 56.2%
    • xG · Uppsala W 2.43 — Djurgården 2.68
  2. Sep 26, 2026 · 12:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Uppsala W 9.59 · Draw 5.98 · Djurgården 1.20
    • Implied 1X2 · Uppsala W 9.4% · Draw 15.1% · Djurgården 75.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 26, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Uppsala W 10.67 · Draw 6.41 · Djurgården 1.20
    • Implied 1X2 · Uppsala W 8.7% · Draw 14.4% · Djurgården 76.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 26, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Djurgården win · 1–4
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 41/100 · Low
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (21 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (99%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Moderate model lean
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 26/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:12 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10087196

Closing Odds 1.2
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Djurgården win · Uppsala W 1–4 Djurgården
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Damallsvenskan
  • Fixture: Uppsala W vs Djurgården
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Uppsala W 2.43 — Djurgården 2.68 (total xG ≈ 5.11)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Damallsvenskan Damallsvenskan — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Häcken 20 18 1 1 55
2 Hammarby 20 16 2 2 50
3 Malmö FF W 19 10 6 3 36
4 AIK 20 10 4 6 34
5 Kristianstad 20 8 5 7 29
6 Vittsjö 20 8 5 7 29
7 Eskilstuna United 20 8 3 9 27
8 Brommapojkarna W 19 8 2 9 26
9 Piteå W 19 6 5 8 23
10 Djurgården 20 6 3 11 21
11 Växjö 20 5 3 12 18
12 Rosengård W 19 4 5 10 17
13 Norrköping W 20 3 7 10 16
14 Uppsala W 20 1 3 16 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Häcken 20 61 13 +48 55
2 Hammarby 20 49 10 +39 50
3 Malmö FF W 19 38 11 +27 36
4 Kristianstad 20 33 32 +1 29
5 AIK 20 29 27 +2 34
6 Vittsjö 20 27 26 +1 29
7 Brommapojkarna W 19 25 33 -8 26
8 Djurgården 20 25 33 -8 21
9 Piteå W 19 23 28 -5 23
10 Växjö 20 23 40 -17 18
11 Rosengård W 19 20 25 -5 17
12 Eskilstuna United 20 18 25 -7 27
13 Norrköping W 20 17 35 -18 16
14 Uppsala W 20 14 64 -50 6
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Hammarby 20 2.9 2.2 +0.7 50
2 AIK 20 2.2 2.9 -0.7 34
3 Häcken 20 — — — 55
4 Malmö FF W 19 — — — 36
5 Kristianstad 20 — — — 29
6 Vittsjö 20 — — — 29
7 Eskilstuna United 20 — — — 27
8 Brommapojkarna W 19 — — — 26
9 Piteå W 19 — — — 23
10 Djurgården 20 — — — 21
11 Växjö 20 — — — 18
12 Rosengård W 19 — — — 17
13 Norrköping W 20 — — — 16
14 Uppsala W 20 — — — 6
Damallsvenskan Sweden. Damallsvenskan Predictions