Statistics / Football / USA. USL League One / Sarasota Paradise vs Charlotte Independence

Sarasota Paradise vs Charlotte Independence Statistics & Analysis

Sarasota Paradise Sarasota Paradise
Oct 03, 2026 - 23:30
2 1.37
3 1.23
xG Accuracy: 52%
Charlotte Independence Charlotte Independence
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Sarasota Paradise Charlotte Independence ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 04:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11264449

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Charlotte Independence win · Sarasota Paradise 2–3 Charlotte Independence
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: USL League One
  • Fixture: Sarasota Paradise vs Charlotte Independence
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 23:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
  • xG (showing): Sarasota Paradise 1.37 — Charlotte Independence 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 38.1% · Probability edge: +13.7 pts · Est. EV: +29.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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USL League One USL League One — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Union Omaha 29 19 4 6 61
2 Charlotte Independence 28 17 6 5 57
3 Forward Madison 28 15 6 7 51
4 Boise 29 14 7 8 49
5 One Knoxville 29 13 9 7 48
6 Chattanooga Red Wolves 29 14 4 11 46
7 Spokane Velocity 26 14 4 8 46
8 Fort Wayne 27 10 8 9 38
9 Corpus Christi 28 9 9 10 36
10 Sarasota Paradise 27 9 6 12 33
11 Alta 28 8 8 12 32
12 Naples 27 9 4 14 31
13 Westchester SC 28 8 6 14 30
14 Portland Hearts of Pine 28 7 9 12 30
15 NY Cosmos 27 7 4 16 25
16 Greenville Triumph 28 6 5 17 23
17 Richmond Kickers 28 6 5 17 23
18 Tormenta 0 0 0 0 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Charlotte Independence 28 64 40 +24 57
2 Union Omaha 29 53 31 +22 61
3 Forward Madison 28 50 27 +23 51
4 Chattanooga Red Wolves 29 50 40 +10 46
5 One Knoxville 29 46 34 +12 48
6 Westchester SC 28 46 45 +1 30
7 Boise 29 45 39 +6 49
8 Fort Wayne 27 42 36 +6 38
9 Portland Hearts of Pine 28 40 50 -10 30
10 Spokane Velocity 26 38 33 +5 46
11 Sarasota Paradise 27 37 40 -3 33
12 NY Cosmos 27 35 54 -19 25
13 Alta 28 34 40 -6 32
14 Corpus Christi 28 32 40 -8 36
15 Naples 27 30 43 -13 31
16 Greenville Triumph 28 30 52 -22 23
17 Richmond Kickers 28 30 58 -28 23
18 Tormenta 0 0 0 0 0
USL League One USA. USL League One Predictions