Boise vs Greenville Triumph Statistics & Analysis

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Boise

Oct 03, 2026 - 19:00

1 1.33

0 1.27

xG Accuracy: 64%

Greenville Triumph

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Boise Boise ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 27, 2026 · 03:48 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-11260737

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Boise win · Boise 1–0 Greenville Triumph

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: USL League One
Fixture: Boise vs Greenville Triumph
Kickoff: 2026-10-03 19:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
xG (showing): Boise 1.33 — Greenville Triumph 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 06, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics

USL League One — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Union Omaha	29	19	4	6	61
2	Charlotte Independence	28	17	6	5	57
3	Forward Madison	28	15	6	7	51
4	Boise	29	14	7	8	49
5	One Knoxville	29	13	9	7	48
6	Chattanooga Red Wolves	29	14	4	11	46
7	Spokane Velocity	26	14	4	8	46
8	Fort Wayne	27	10	8	9	38
9	Corpus Christi	28	9	9	10	36
10	Sarasota Paradise	27	9	6	12	33
11	Alta	28	8	8	12	32
12	Naples	27	9	4	14	31
13	Westchester SC	28	8	6	14	30
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	28	7	9	12	30
15	NY Cosmos	27	7	4	16	25
16	Greenville Triumph	28	6	5	17	23
17	Richmond Kickers	28	6	5	17	23
18	Tormenta	0	0	0	0	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Charlotte Independence	28	64	40	+24	57
2	Union Omaha	29	53	31	+22	61
3	Forward Madison	28	50	27	+23	51
4	Chattanooga Red Wolves	29	50	40	+10	46
5	One Knoxville	29	46	34	+12	48
6	Westchester SC	28	46	45	+1	30
7	Boise	29	45	39	+6	49
8	Fort Wayne	27	42	36	+6	38
9	Portland Hearts of Pine	28	40	50	-10	30
10	Spokane Velocity	26	38	33	+5	46
11	Sarasota Paradise	27	37	40	-3	33
12	NY Cosmos	27	35	54	-19	25
13	Alta	28	34	40	-6	32
14	Corpus Christi	28	32	40	-8	36
15	Naples	27	30	43	-13	31
16	Greenville Triumph	28	30	52	-22	23
17	Richmond Kickers	28	30	58	-28	23
18	Tormenta	0	0	0	0	0