Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Hartford Athletic Statistics & Analysis

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

• League: USL Championship
• Fixture: Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Hartford Athletic
• Kickoff: 2026-06-13 23:30:00
• 1X2 (model): Home 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.0%
• xG (showing): Tampa Bay Rowdies 1.22 — Hartford Athletic 1.38 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
• Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Hartford Athletic
• Model: 39.0% · Implied: 15.1% · Probability edge: +23.9 pts · Est. EV: +13.7%
• BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
• Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Primary pick from the decision engine: Hartford Athletic.

Model probability is compared to implied probability from odds to highlight a probability edge; EV uses the same model probability with the best decimal price tracked.

Only one modest +EV edge is highlighted here; size cautiously and re-check if odds move.

Why might 1X2 look unattractive while totals do not?

Tight 1X2 prices often embed a fair three-way split, so EV on match-winner can sit negative even when Over/Under or BTTS still diverges from the model — compare the 1X2 row on the market cards to O/U and BTTS.

Safer market than correct score?

Markets with more liquidity and smoother prices (often 1X2 or O/U 2.5 from many books) are usually easier to reason about than long-tail correct-score prices; still read EV on each leg.

How should I read EV versus a probability gap?

Probability edge = model probability minus implied probability (reported here in percentage points). EV ≈ model probability × best tracked decimal odds − 1, shown as return per unit stake. They are related but not interchangeable labels.

Who has the edge in the match-winner market?

Use the 1X2 model percentages in the summary and the 1X2 market card: the side with the highest model % is the model lean, but check EV — a lean can still be -EV after prices.

• Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
• Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
• In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
• Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

• Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
• Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

June 15, 2026 (UTC)