UCD vs Kerry Statistics & Analysis

UCD

Jun 19, 2026 - 18:45

0 1.41

1 1.19

xG Accuracy: 64%

Kerry

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 UCD Kerry ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 0-1 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 05:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1555304

Closing Odds 1.66

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Kerry win · UCD 0–1 Kerry

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

The largest late implied swing on this feed was about 3.21 percentage points on UCD (1X2) between PRE30 and PRE1.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Kerry (1X2) by about 8.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
UCD (1X2)	44.1	57.2	-13.1
Draw (1X2)	28.7	24.3	+4.4
Kerry (1X2)	27.2	18.5	+8.7
Over 2.5 goals	48.2	51.6	-3.4
Under 2.5 goals	51.8	48.4	+3.4

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 27.2% on Kerry (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 18.5%. The difference — about 8.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)	Implied Δ (pp)
UCD (1X2)	1.76	1.66	+3.2
Draw (1X2)	3.68	3.91	-1.5
Kerry (1X2)	4.7	5.12	-1.7
Over 2.5 goals	1.93	1.86	+1.8
Under 2.5 goals	1.91	1.98	-1.8

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: First Division
Fixture: UCD vs Kerry
Kickoff: 2026-06-19 18:45:00
1X2 (model): Home 44.1% · Draw 28.7% · Away 27.2%
xG (showing): UCD 1.41 — Kerry 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 25, 2026 (UTC)

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First Division — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Cork City	32	22	5	5	71
2	Bray Wanderers	32	14	8	10	50
3	UCD	32	14	7	11	49
4	Cobh Ramblers	32	13	6	13	45
5	Longford Town	32	12	8	12	44
6	Athlone Town	32	12	8	12	44
7	Kerry	32	11	9	12	42
8	Wexford	32	11	7	14	40
9	Treaty United	32	8	9	15	33
10	Finn Harps	32	6	7	19	25

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Cork City	32	69	30	+39	71
2	Bray Wanderers	32	61	44	+17	50
3	UCD	32	56	45	+11	49
4	Longford Town	32	42	41	+1	44
5	Kerry	32	39	39	0	42
6	Cobh Ramblers	32	39	46	-7	45
7	Wexford	32	37	47	-10	40
8	Athlone Town	32	36	36	0	44
9	Treaty United	32	31	47	-16	33
10	Finn Harps	32	29	64	-35	25