Predictions / Football / Ireland. First Division / Kerry vs Wexford

Prediction Audit: Kerry vs Wexford Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Kerry Kerry
Sep 25, 2026 - 18:45
1 1.28
0 1.32
xG Accuracy: 64%
Wexford Wexford

The model missed the final outcome (Kerry win 1–0).

The model had projected Wexford at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Wexford Kerry ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Kerry higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Kerry -7.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Kerry 34.2% 41.6% -7.4 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 26.3% +3.3 pp Aligned
Wexford 36.1% 32.1% +4.0 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Kerry's win probability at 41.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 7.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Kerry win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Kerry. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Wexford; match finished Kerry

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Wexford by 7.4 percentage points (43.5% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 25, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Kerry 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Wexford 36.1%
    • xG · Kerry 1.28 — Wexford 1.32
  2. Sep 25, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Kerry 2.29 · Draw 3.62 · Wexford 2.97
    • Implied 1X2 · Kerry 41.6% · Draw 26.3% · Wexford 32.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 25, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Kerry 2.29 · Draw 3.62 · Wexford 2.97
    • Implied 1X2 · Kerry 41.6% · Draw 26.3% · Wexford 32.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 25, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Kerry win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 22/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 19, 2026 · 01:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9575810

Closing Odds 2.29
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Kerry win · Kerry 1–0 Wexford
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: First Division
  • Fixture: Kerry vs Wexford
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-25 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Kerry 1.28 — Wexford 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 46.9% · Probability edge: +4.9 pts · Est. EV: +7.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming First Division Matches Track Kerry Next Match Prediction Track Wexford Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Kerry & Wexford!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
First Division First Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Cork City 32 22 5 5 71
2 Bray Wanderers 32 14 8 10 50
3 UCD 32 14 7 11 49
4 Cobh Ramblers 32 13 6 13 45
5 Longford Town 32 12 8 12 44
6 Athlone Town 32 12 8 12 44
7 Kerry 32 11 9 12 42
8 Wexford 32 11 7 14 40
9 Treaty United 32 8 9 15 33
10 Finn Harps 32 6 7 19 25
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Cork City 32 69 30 +39 71
2 Bray Wanderers 32 61 44 +17 50
3 UCD 32 56 45 +11 49
4 Longford Town 32 42 41 +1 44
5 Kerry 32 39 39 0 42
6 Cobh Ramblers 32 39 46 -7 45
7 Wexford 32 37 47 -10 40
8 Athlone Town 32 36 36 0 44
9 Treaty United 32 31 47 -16 33
10 Finn Harps 32 29 64 -35 25
First Division Ireland. First Division Predictions