Statistics / Football / Ireland. Premier Division / Galway United vs Sligo Rovers

Galway United vs Sligo Rovers Statistics & Analysis

Galway United Galway United
Jul 11, 2026 - 16:00
3 3.06
2 0.97
xG Accuracy: 74%
Sligo Rovers Sligo Rovers
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Galway United Galway United ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 3-0, 2-0, 3-1, 2-1, 4-0 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 15:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1465430

Closing Odds 1.72
AI Fair Odds 1.28
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Galway United win · Galway United 3–2 Sligo Rovers
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 78.1%
  • Historical Bucket: 75–80% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Galway United (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Galway United (1X2) by about 22.3 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Galway United (1X2) 78.1 55.8 +22.3
Draw (1X2) 13.9 23.2 -9.3
Sligo Rovers (1X2) 8.0 21.0 -13.0
Over 2.5 goals 76.6 58.1 +18.5
Under 2.5 goals 23.4 41.9 -18.5
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 78.1% on Galway United (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 55.8%. The difference — about 22.3 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Galway United (1X2) 1.72 1.72 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.14 4.14 0.0
Sligo Rovers (1X2) 4.58 4.58 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.66 1.66 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 2.3 2.3 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Premier Division
  • Fixture: Galway United vs Sligo Rovers
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-11 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 78.1% · Draw 13.9% · Away 8.0%
  • xG (showing): Galway United 3.06 — Sligo Rovers 0.97 (total xG ≈ 4.03)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 76.6% · Implied: 57.0% · Probability edge: +19.6 pts · Est. EV: +32.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Premier Division Premier Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Shamrock Rovers 29 16 8 5 56
2 St Patrick's Athl. 29 14 8 7 50
3 Bohemians 29 14 8 7 50
4 Dundalk 29 10 10 9 40
5 Shelbourne 28 8 12 8 36
6 Derry City 29 7 13 9 34
7 Galway United 28 8 10 10 34
8 Waterford 29 7 11 11 32
9 Drogheda United 29 6 10 13 28
10 Sligo Rovers 29 5 8 16 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bohemians 29 50 34 +16 50
2 Shamrock Rovers 29 46 27 +19 56
3 Dundalk 29 46 45 +1 40
4 St Patrick's Athl. 29 45 25 +20 50
5 Derry City 29 41 40 +1 34
6 Waterford 29 39 48 -9 32
7 Shelbourne 28 37 39 -2 36
8 Galway United 28 36 42 -6 34
9 Drogheda United 29 33 48 -15 28
10 Sligo Rovers 29 23 48 -25 23
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Waterford 29 13.0 7.8 +5.2 32
2 St Patrick's Athl. 29 12.6 8.9 +3.7 50
3 Bohemians 29 11.5 8.2 +3.3 50
4 Derry City 29 10.8 7.8 +3.0 34
5 Shamrock Rovers 29 9.7 8.2 +1.5 56
6 Dundalk 29 13.0 12.1 +0.9 40
7 Galway United 28 10.9 13.0 -2.1 34
8 Shelbourne 28 6.2 9.8 -3.6 36
9 Drogheda United 29 6.4 12.3 -5.9 28
10 Sligo Rovers 29 8.0 14.1 -6.1 23
Premier Division Ireland. Premier Division Predictions