Predictions / Football / Ireland. Premier Division / Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford

Prediction Audit: Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Shamrock Rovers Shamrock Rovers
Sep 18, 2026 - 19:00
3 1.29
2 1.42
xG Accuracy: 53%
Waterford Waterford

AI correctly predicted the Shamrock Rovers win.

The match finished 3–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Shamrock Rovers Shamrock Rovers ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 2-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Shamrock Rovers higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Shamrock Rovers -21.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Shamrock Rovers 41.5% 63.0% -21.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 27.6% 20.9% +6.7 pp Model Higher
Waterford 30.9% 16.0% +14.9 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Shamrock Rovers's win probability at 63.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.5%, a difference of 21.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Shamrock Rovers win 3–2).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.71) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Shamrock Rovers higher (63.1% vs model 41.5%, 21.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Shamrock Rovers win 3–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 18, 2026 · 19:34 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Shamrock Rovers 41.5% · Draw 27.6% · Waterford 30.9%
    • xG · Shamrock Rovers 1.29 — Waterford 1.42
  2. Sep 18, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Shamrock Rovers 1.52 · Draw 4.58 · Waterford 5.98
    • Implied 1X2 · Shamrock Rovers 63.0% · Draw 20.9% · Waterford 16.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 18, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Shamrock Rovers 1.52 · Draw 4.58 · Waterford 5.98
    • Implied 1X2 · Shamrock Rovers 63.0% · Draw 20.9% · Waterford 16.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 18, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Shamrock Rovers win · 3–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (22 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 12, 2026 · 02:41 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8231466

Closing Odds 1.52
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Shamrock Rovers win · Shamrock Rovers 3–2 Waterford
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Premier Division
  • Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-18 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.5% · Draw 27.6% · Away 30.9%
  • xG (showing): Shamrock Rovers 1.29 — Waterford 1.42 (total xG ≈ 2.71)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 49.1% · Over 2.5 50.9%); BTTS Yes (Yes 56.5% · No 43.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 56.5% · No 43.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier Division Premier Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 St Patrick's Athl. 32 17 8 7 59
2 Shamrock Rovers 31 17 8 6 59
3 Bohemians 31 16 8 7 56
4 Derry City 32 9 14 9 41
5 Dundalk 32 10 11 11 41
6 Shelbourne 32 9 13 10 40
7 Galway United 32 9 11 12 38
8 Waterford 32 7 13 12 34
9 Drogheda United 32 8 10 14 34
10 Sligo Rovers 32 5 8 19 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bohemians 31 55 37 +18 56
2 St Patrick's Athl. 32 52 25 +27 59
3 Shamrock Rovers 31 49 31 +18 59
4 Dundalk 32 49 53 -4 41
5 Derry City 32 45 42 +3 41
6 Waterford 32 44 54 -10 34
7 Shelbourne 32 42 45 -3 40
8 Galway United 32 42 48 -6 38
9 Drogheda United 32 38 51 -13 34
10 Sligo Rovers 32 24 54 -30 23
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Waterford 32 13.0 7.8 +5.2 34
2 St Patrick's Athl. 32 12.6 8.9 +3.7 59
3 Bohemians 31 11.5 8.2 +3.3 56
4 Derry City 32 10.8 7.8 +3.0 41
5 Shamrock Rovers 31 9.7 8.2 +1.5 59
6 Dundalk 32 13.0 12.1 +0.9 41
7 Galway United 32 10.9 13.0 -2.1 38
8 Shelbourne 32 6.2 9.8 -3.6 40
9 Drogheda United 32 6.4 12.3 -5.9 34
10 Sligo Rovers 32 8.0 14.1 -6.1 23
Premier Division Ireland. Premier Division Predictions