Statistics / Football / Brazil. Serie A / Internacional vs Atletico-MG

Internacional vs Atletico-MG Statistics & Analysis

Internacional Internacional
Aug 22, 2026 - 21:30
0 1.12
0 1.54
xG Accuracy: 48%
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Atletico-MG Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 03:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4243549

Closing Odds 4.13
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Internacional 0–0 Atletico-MG
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Atletico-MG (1X2), Over 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Atletico-MG (1X2) by about 22.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Internacional (1X2) 26.1 47.0 -20.9
Draw (1X2) 28.5 29.6 -1.1
Atletico-MG (1X2) 45.5 23.4 +22.0
Over 2.5 goals 49.6 46.7 +2.9
Under 2.5 goals 50.3 53.3 -3.0
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 45.5% on Atletico-MG (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 23.4%. The difference — about 22.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Internacional (1X2) 2.06 2.06 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.27 3.27 0.0
Atletico-MG (1X2) 4.13 4.13 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 2.08 2.08 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.82 1.82 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Serie A
  • Fixture: Internacional vs Atletico-MG
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-22 21:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 26.1% · Draw 28.5% · Away 45.5%
  • xG (showing): Internacional 1.12 — Atletico-MG 1.54 (total xG ≈ 2.66)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Atletico-MG
  • Model: 45.5% · Implied: 23.4% · Probability edge: +22.0 pts · Est. EV: +8.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.1%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Serie A Serie A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Flamengo 28 18 6 4 60
2 Palmeiras 28 16 9 3 57
3 Atletico Paranaense 28 14 7 7 49
4 Fluminense 28 13 9 6 48
5 Bahia 28 12 10 6 46
6 Cruzeiro 28 13 6 9 45
7 Atletico-MG 27 11 7 9 40
8 Santos 27 10 8 9 38
9 Coritiba 28 10 8 10 38
10 RB Bragantino 27 10 6 11 36
11 Sao Paulo 27 10 6 11 36
12 Botafogo 28 9 8 11 35
13 Vitoria 28 9 6 13 33
14 Corinthians 28 8 8 12 32
15 Mirassol 28 8 8 12 32
16 Vasco DA Gama 27 8 7 12 31
17 Gremio 28 7 8 13 29
18 Internacional 28 6 10 12 28
19 remo 28 5 8 15 23
20 Chapecoense-sc 27 3 9 15 18
20 Chapecoense B 20 1 7 12 10
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Flamengo 28 55 23 +32 60
2 Palmeiras 28 47 21 +26 57
3 Fluminense 28 44 36 +8 48
4 Atletico Paranaense 28 43 32 +11 49
5 Bahia 28 43 35 +8 46
6 Cruzeiro 28 42 40 +2 45
7 Santos 27 41 40 +1 38
8 Botafogo 28 41 45 -4 35
9 Coritiba 28 37 43 -6 38
10 Atletico-MG 27 36 32 +4 40
11 Vasco DA Gama 27 34 41 -7 31
12 RB Bragantino 27 33 31 +2 36
13 Mirassol 28 33 42 -9 32
14 Sao Paulo 27 32 30 +2 36
15 remo 28 32 47 -15 23
16 Internacional 28 30 36 -6 28
17 Gremio 28 30 38 -8 29
18 Corinthians 28 29 32 -3 32
19 Chapecoense-sc 27 29 53 -24 18
20 Vitoria 28 28 42 -14 33
21 Chapecoense B 20 19 41 -22 10
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Bahia 28 12.2 6.9 +5.3 46
2 Santos 27 9.9 6.6 +3.3 38
3 Flamengo 28 9.0 5.7 +3.3 60
4 Vasco DA Gama 27 9.2 6.1 +3.1 31
5 Atletico-MG 27 5.9 2.9 +3.0 40
6 Corinthians 28 7.2 4.7 +2.5 32
7 Atletico Paranaense 28 10.2 8.1 +2.1 49
8 Fluminense 28 8.7 6.8 +1.9 48
9 Palmeiras 28 8.2 6.5 +1.7 57
10 Botafogo 28 11.0 10.9 +0.1 35
11 Sao Paulo 27 4.9 4.8 +0.1 36
12 RB Bragantino 27 4.9 5.7 -0.8 36
13 Cruzeiro 28 9.3 10.2 -0.9 45
14 Mirassol 28 7.1 9.0 -1.9 32
15 remo 28 5.6 7.7 -2.1 23
16 Coritiba 28 4.9 7.1 -2.2 38
17 Chapecoense-sc 27 7.3 9.9 -2.6 18
18 Internacional 28 8.8 11.5 -2.7 28
19 Vitoria 28 6.6 11.7 -5.1 33
20 Gremio 28 5.3 13.5 -8.2 29
21 Chapecoense B 20 — — — 10
Serie A Brazil. Serie A Predictions