Statistics / Football / Brazil. Serie A / Atletico-MG vs RB Bragantino

Atletico-MG vs RB Bragantino Statistics & Analysis

Atletico-MG Atletico-MG
Oct 03, 2026 - 21:30
1 1.23
0 0.83
xG Accuracy: 75%
RB Bragantino RB Bragantino
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Atletico-MG Atletico-MG ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 15:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1470910

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Atletico-MG win · Atletico-MG 1–0 RB Bragantino
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Serie A
  • Fixture: Atletico-MG vs RB Bragantino
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-03 21:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 43.8% · Draw 32.9% · Away 23.3%
  • xG (showing): Atletico-MG 1.23 — RB Bragantino 0.83 (total xG ≈ 2.06)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 66.0% · Implied: 49.5% · Probability edge: +16.5 pts · Est. EV: +34.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 41.6% · No 58.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (15.7%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Selective Lean - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 09, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie A Serie A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Flamengo 29 18 7 4 61
2 Palmeiras 28 16 9 3 57
3 Atletico Paranaense 28 14 7 7 49
4 Cruzeiro 29 14 6 9 48
5 Fluminense 28 13 9 6 48
6 Bahia 28 12 10 6 46
7 Atletico-MG 28 12 7 9 43
8 Santos 29 11 9 9 42
9 Coritiba 28 10 8 10 38
10 RB Bragantino 29 10 7 12 37
11 Sao Paulo 29 10 6 13 36
12 Vitoria 29 10 6 13 36
13 Botafogo 29 9 8 12 35
14 Vasco DA Gama 28 9 7 12 34
15 Mirassol 29 8 9 12 33
16 Corinthians 29 8 8 13 32
17 Internacional 29 7 10 12 31
18 Gremio 29 7 9 13 30
19 remo 29 5 9 15 24
20 Chapecoense-sc 28 3 9 16 18
20 Chapecoense B 20 1 7 12 10
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Flamengo 29 57 25 +32 61
2 Palmeiras 28 47 21 +26 57
3 Santos 29 45 43 +2 42
4 Fluminense 28 44 36 +8 48
5 Cruzeiro 29 44 40 +4 48
6 Atletico Paranaense 28 43 32 +11 49
7 Bahia 28 43 35 +8 46
8 Botafogo 29 42 47 -5 35
9 Atletico-MG 28 37 32 +5 43
10 Coritiba 28 37 43 -6 38
11 Vasco DA Gama 28 36 42 -6 34
12 RB Bragantino 29 34 33 +1 37
13 Mirassol 29 34 43 -9 33
14 Sao Paulo 29 33 34 -1 36
15 remo 29 33 48 -15 24
16 Internacional 29 32 37 -5 31
17 Vitoria 29 32 42 -10 36
18 Gremio 29 31 39 -8 30
19 Corinthians 29 30 34 -4 32
20 Chapecoense-sc 28 29 57 -28 18
21 Chapecoense B 20 19 41 -22 10
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Bahia 28 12.2 6.9 +5.3 46
2 Santos 29 9.9 6.6 +3.3 42
3 Flamengo 29 9.0 5.7 +3.3 61
4 Vasco DA Gama 28 9.2 6.1 +3.1 34
5 Atletico-MG 28 5.9 2.9 +3.0 43
6 Corinthians 29 7.2 4.7 +2.5 32
7 Atletico Paranaense 28 10.2 8.1 +2.1 49
8 Fluminense 28 8.7 6.8 +1.9 48
9 Palmeiras 28 8.2 6.5 +1.7 57
10 Botafogo 29 11.0 10.9 +0.1 35
11 Sao Paulo 29 4.9 4.8 +0.1 36
12 RB Bragantino 29 4.9 5.7 -0.8 37
13 Cruzeiro 29 9.3 10.2 -0.9 48
14 Mirassol 29 7.1 9.0 -1.9 33
15 remo 29 5.6 7.7 -2.1 24
16 Coritiba 28 4.9 7.1 -2.2 38
17 Chapecoense-sc 28 7.3 9.9 -2.6 18
18 Internacional 29 8.8 11.5 -2.7 31
19 Vitoria 29 6.6 11.7 -5.1 36
20 Gremio 29 5.3 13.5 -8.2 30
21 Chapecoense B 20 — — — 10
Serie A Brazil. Serie A Predictions