Paraguay W vs Colombia W Statistics & Analysis

Paraguay W

Jun 09, 2026 - 23:00

3 1.81

4 1.12

xG Accuracy: 33%

Colombia W

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Paraguay W Colombia W ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-2 3-4 ✖ Incorrect

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: CONMEBOL Nations League Women
Fixture: Paraguay W vs Colombia W
Kickoff: 2026-06-09 20:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 52.1% · Draw 25.9% · Away 22.0%
xG (showing): Paraguay W 1.81 — Colombia W 1.12 (total xG ≈ 2.93)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
Model: 57.8% · Implied: 46.8% · Probability edge: +11.0 pts · Est. EV: +19.1%
BTTS (model): Yes 57.8% · No 42.2%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.8%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Best Bet + Reason

The engine’s headline primary is: BTTS Yes.

If 1X2 looks tight, the engine may still find clearer structure in totals or BTTS — that is intentional.

No pick is a guarantee; variance is especially large in scoreline markets.

FAQ

Safer market than correct score?

Markets with more liquidity and smoother prices (often 1X2 or O/U 2.5 from many books) are usually easier to reason about than long-tail correct-score prices; still read EV on each leg.

Who has the edge in the match-winner market?

Use the 1X2 model percentages in the summary and the 1X2 market card: the side with the highest model % is the model lean, but check EV — a lean can still be -EV after prices.

What is the best-supported line in this snapshot?

Match the hero card above: if it says “Betting Primary Pick”, that leg cleared primary rules; if it says “Best +EV (tracked markets)”, it is the strongest +EV line that did not meet stricter Primary thresholds. The bullets below repeat the same model %, implied %, edge (pts), and EV % as that card.

What changes first if odds move?

Implied probabilities and EV move immediately with price; model probabilities in this snapshot do not update until the pipeline is re-run. Refresh after material line moves.

Risk Factors

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Methodology

Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

Last Updated

June 13, 2026 (UTC)

How to use this

Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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CONMEBOL Nations League Women — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Colombia W	8	6	2	0	20
2	Argentina W	8	5	3	0	18
3	Venezuela W	8	3	3	2	12
4	Ecuador W	8	3	2	3	11
5	Peru W	8	3	2	3	11
6	Chile W	8	3	1	4	10
7	Paraguay W	8	3	1	4	10
8	Uruguay W	8	1	3	4	6
9	Bolivia W	8	0	1	7	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Venezuela W	8	19	6	+13	12
2	Argentina W	8	18	5	+13	18
3	Paraguay W	8	17	11	+6	10
4	Colombia W	8	16	7	+9	20
5	Peru W	8	12	15	-3	11
6	Chile W	8	11	9	+2	10
7	Ecuador W	8	8	6	+2	11
8	Uruguay W	8	7	11	-4	6
9	Bolivia W	8	2	40	-38	1