Karvan vs Qabala Statistics & Analysis

Karvan

May 15, 2026 - 13:00

1 1.45

2 1.25

xG Accuracy: 72%

Qabala

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Karvan Qabala ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Premyer Liqa
Fixture: Karvan vs Qabala
Kickoff: 2026-05-16 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Karvan 1.45 — Qabala 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
Model: 75.0% · Implied: 52.9% · Probability edge: +22.1 pts · Est. EV: +35.0%
BTTS (model): Yes 25.0% · No 75.0%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Best Bet + Reason

Primary pick from the decision engine: BTTS No.

If 1X2 looks tight, the engine may still find clearer structure in totals or BTTS — that is intentional.

Only one modest +EV edge is highlighted here; size cautiously and re-check if odds move.

FAQ

Who has the edge in the match-winner market?

Use the 1X2 model percentages in the summary and the 1X2 market card: the side with the highest model % is the model lean, but check EV — a lean can still be -EV after prices.

What changes first if odds move?

Implied probabilities and EV move immediately with price; model probabilities in this snapshot do not update until the pipeline is re-run. Refresh after material line moves.

Is the most likely correct score a good bet?

Usually no as a standalone bet: the “most likely” scoreline is still a low absolute probability tail event (often single digits, sometimes low teens). Use it as context; keep any correct-score stake in the “fun / small” bucket.

Safer market than correct score?

Markets with more liquidity and smoother prices (often 1X2 or O/U 2.5 from many books) are usually easier to reason about than long-tail correct-score prices; still read EV on each leg.

Risk Factors

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Methodology

Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

Last Updated

May 18, 2026 (UTC)

How to use this

Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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Back to Statistics

Premyer Liqa — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Sabah FA	31	23	6	2	75
2	Qarabag	32	20	6	6	66
3	Turan	32	17	8	7	59
4	Neftchi Baku	31	14	11	6	53
5	Zira	31	12	14	5	50
6	Araz	32	12	7	13	43
7	Sumqayıt	31	12	5	14	41
8	Şamaxı FK	32	9	11	12	38
9	Imisli FK	32	7	12	13	33
10	Kapaz	32	8	3	21	27
11	Qabala	32	6	6	20	24
12	Karvan	32	3	5	24	14

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Sabah FA	31	72	22	+50	75
2	Qarabag	32	67	24	+43	66
3	Neftchi Baku	31	54	31	+23	53
4	Turan	32	43	25	+18	59
5	Sumqayıt	31	41	43	-2	41
6	Araz	32	41	56	-15	43
7	Zira	31	39	32	+7	50
8	Şamaxı FK	32	30	37	-7	38
9	Qabala	32	29	48	-19	24
10	Kapaz	32	25	60	-35	27
11	Imisli FK	32	22	42	-20	33
12	Karvan	32	22	65	-43	14