Gemert vs SteDoCo Statistics & Analysis

Gemert

May 16, 2026 - 13:30

6 1.45

1 1.25

xG Accuracy: 27%

SteDoCo

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Gemert Gemert ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1 6-1 ✖ Incorrect

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Derde Divisie - Sunday
Fixture: Gemert vs SteDoCo
Kickoff: 2026-05-16 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Gemert 1.45 — SteDoCo 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 42.3% · Implied: 36.1% · Probability edge: +6.2 pts · Est. EV: +8.3%
BTTS (model): Yes 58.0% · No 42.0%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.6%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Best Bet + Reason

Primary pick from the decision engine: Under 2.5 goals.

We separate probability edge (model minus implied, in points of probability) from estimated EV (economic edge at the best price shown on the page).

When several markets sit near +EV, keep stakes small — correlation means edges do not add cleanly.

FAQ

Safer market than correct score?

Markets with more liquidity and smoother prices (often 1X2 or O/U 2.5 from many books) are usually easier to reason about than long-tail correct-score prices; still read EV on each leg.

Is the most likely correct score a good bet?

Usually no as a standalone bet: the “most likely” scoreline is still a low absolute probability tail event (often single digits, sometimes low teens). Use it as context; keep any correct-score stake in the “fun / small” bucket.

What is the best-supported line in this snapshot?

Match the hero card above: if it says “Betting Primary Pick”, that leg cleared primary rules; if it says “Best +EV (tracked markets)”, it is the strongest +EV line that did not meet stricter Primary thresholds. The bullets below repeat the same model %, implied %, edge (pts), and EV % as that card.

What changes first if odds move?

Implied probabilities and EV move immediately with price; model probabilities in this snapshot do not update until the pipeline is re-run. Refresh after material line moves.

Risk Factors

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Methodology

Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

Last Updated

May 18, 2026 (UTC)

How to use this

Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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Derde Divisie - Sunday — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Kloetinge	33	21	7	5	70
2	FC Lisse	33	19	8	6	65
3	Vvsb	33	20	5	8	65
4	Rijnvogels	33	19	7	7	64
5	Gemert	33	17	9	7	60
6	Roosendaal	33	14	9	10	51
7	TOGB	33	14	8	11	50
8	Zwaluwen	33	14	6	13	48
9	Blauw Geel	33	14	6	13	48
10	Noordwijk	33	12	8	13	44
11	UDI '19	33	11	6	16	39
12	UNA	33	10	8	15	38
13	GOES	33	10	6	17	36
14	SteDoCo	33	10	4	19	34
15	Groene Ster	33	9	6	18	33
16	SVV Scheveningen	33	9	5	19	32
17	Meerssen	33	7	7	19	28
18	ASWH	33	6	7	20	25

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Gemert	33	68	43	+25	60
2	Vvsb	33	67	37	+30	65
3	Roosendaal	33	67	55	+12	51
4	FC Lisse	33	64	32	+32	65
5	Rijnvogels	33	63	36	+27	64
6	Kloetinge	33	63	42	+21	70
7	TOGB	33	62	60	+2	50
8	Zwaluwen	33	58	48	+10	48
9	Noordwijk	33	55	49	+6	44
10	UDI '19	33	54	70	-16	39
11	Blauw Geel	33	53	48	+5	48
12	UNA	33	50	57	-7	38
13	SVV Scheveningen	33	48	62	-14	32
14	Meerssen	33	45	69	-24	28
15	ASWH	33	44	84	-40	25
16	Groene Ster	33	42	63	-21	33
17	GOES	33	40	58	-18	36
18	SteDoCo	33	34	64	-30	34