Kreuzlingen vs Bavois Statistics & Analysis

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

• League: 1. Liga Promotion
• Fixture: Kreuzlingen vs Bavois
• Kickoff: 2026-05-17 13:00:00
• 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
• xG (showing): Kreuzlingen 1.45 — Bavois 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
• Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS No
• Model: 40.5% · Implied: 36.7% · Probability edge: +3.8 pts · Est. EV: +4.9%
• BTTS (model): Yes 59.5% · No 40.5%
• Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.9%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Strongest +EV line among tracked markets (not shown as a full Primary under current engine thresholds): BTTS No.

Model probability is compared to implied probability from odds to highlight a probability edge; EV uses the same model probability with the best decimal price tracked.

Only one modest +EV edge is highlighted here; size cautiously and re-check if odds move.

How should I read EV versus a probability gap?

Probability edge = model probability minus implied probability (reported here in percentage points). EV ≈ model probability × best tracked decimal odds − 1, shown as return per unit stake. They are related but not interchangeable labels.

What is the best-supported line in this snapshot?

Match the hero card above: if it says “Betting Primary Pick”, that leg cleared primary rules; if it says “Best +EV (tracked markets)”, it is the strongest +EV line that did not meet stricter Primary thresholds. The bullets below repeat the same model %, implied %, edge (pts), and EV % as that card.

Who has the edge in the match-winner market?

Use the 1X2 model percentages in the summary and the 1X2 market card: the side with the highest model % is the model lean, but check EV — a lean can still be -EV after prices.

Why might 1X2 look unattractive while totals do not?

Tight 1X2 prices often embed a fair three-way split, so EV on match-winner can sit negative even when Over/Under or BTTS still diverges from the model — compare the 1X2 row on the market cards to O/U and BTTS.

• Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
• Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
• In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
• Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

• Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
• Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

May 19, 2026 (UTC)