Leobendorf vs Traiskirchen Statistics & Analysis

Leobendorf

Jun 03, 2026 - 17:30

5 1.08

1 0.90

xG Accuracy: 33%

Traiskirchen

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Leobendorf Leobendorf ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, 2-0 5-1 ✖ Incorrect

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 02:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1538719

Closing Odds 3.95

AI Fair Odds —

CLV +0.0%

Final Result Leobendorf win · Leobendorf 5–1 Traiskirchen

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2) meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Draw (1X2) by about 11.9 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market	Model %	Closing impl. %	Gap (pp)
Leobendorf (1X2)	37.6	40.5	-3.0
Draw (1X2)	34.4	22.5	+11.9
Traiskirchen (1X2)	28.1	37.0	-8.9

What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 34.4% on Draw (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 22.5%. The difference — about 11.9 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table

Market	Early (PRE30)	Closing (PRE1)
Leobendorf (1X2)	2.19	2.19
Draw (1X2)	3.95	3.95
Traiskirchen (1X2)	2.4	2.4

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Regionalliga - Ost
Fixture: Leobendorf vs Traiskirchen
Kickoff: 2026-06-06 14:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 34.4% · Away 28.1%
xG (showing): Leobendorf 1.08 — Traiskirchen 0.9 (total xG ≈ 1.98)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 68.2% · Implied: 29.9% · Probability edge: +38.3 pts · Est. EV: +125.1%
BTTS (model): Yes 40.9% · No 59.1%
Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (14.9%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - Ost — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Parndorf	32	18	8	6	62
2	Gloggnitz	32	18	8	6	62
3	Krems / Rehberg	32	17	7	8	58
4	Leobendorf	32	18	3	11	57
5	Oberwart	32	17	5	10	56
6	SV Horn	32	14	9	9	51
7	Traiskirchen	32	14	8	10	50
8	Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf	32	13	10	9	49
9	Fach-Donaufeld	32	13	8	11	47
10	Wiener SC	32	13	7	12	46
11	Wiener Viktoria	32	13	6	13	45
12	Donau	32	12	8	12	44
13	Favoritner AC	32	12	3	17	39
14	Union Mauer	32	10	7	15	37
15	Neusiedl	32	8	5	19	29
16	Retz	32	4	8	20	20
17	TWL Elektra	32	2	2	28	8

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Oberwart	32	73	42	+31	56
2	Traiskirchen	32	70	52	+18	50
3	Krems / Rehberg	32	61	33	+28	58
4	Parndorf	32	58	34	+24	62
5	Gloggnitz	32	58	45	+13	62
6	SV Horn	32	57	35	+22	51
7	Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf	32	55	37	+18	49
8	Wiener SC	32	54	52	+2	46
9	Fach-Donaufeld	32	51	44	+7	47
10	Wiener Viktoria	32	50	51	-1	45
11	Donau	32	50	57	-7	44
12	Leobendorf	32	48	34	+14	57
13	Neusiedl	32	46	72	-26	29
14	Favoritner AC	32	44	52	-8	39
15	Union Mauer	32	32	47	-15	37
16	Retz	32	25	64	-39	20
17	TWL Elektra	32	21	102	-81	8