Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf vs Fach-Donaufeld Statistics & Analysis

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

• League: Regionalliga - Ost
• Fixture: Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf vs Fach-Donaufeld
• Kickoff: 2026-06-05 17:00:00
• 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 34.6% · Away 31.6%
• xG (showing): Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 1.01 — Fach-Donaufeld 0.97 (total xG ≈ 1.98)
• Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
• Model: 68.2% · Implied: 35.2% · Probability edge: +33.0 pts · Est. EV: +91.6%
• BTTS (model): Yes 41.2% · No 58.8%
• Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (13.9%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

The engine’s headline primary is: Under 2.5 goals.

Model probability is compared to implied probability from odds to highlight a probability edge; EV uses the same model probability with the best decimal price tracked.

No pick is a guarantee; variance is especially large in scoreline markets.

Who has the edge in the match-winner market?

Use the 1X2 model percentages in the summary and the 1X2 market card: the side with the highest model % is the model lean, but check EV — a lean can still be -EV after prices.

Why might 1X2 look unattractive while totals do not?

Tight 1X2 prices often embed a fair three-way split, so EV on match-winner can sit negative even when Over/Under or BTTS still diverges from the model — compare the 1X2 row on the market cards to O/U and BTTS.

What changes first if odds move?

Implied probabilities and EV move immediately with price; model probabilities in this snapshot do not update until the pipeline is re-run. Refresh after material line moves.

What is the best-supported line in this snapshot?

Match the hero card above: if it says “Betting Primary Pick”, that leg cleared primary rules; if it says “Best +EV (tracked markets)”, it is the strongest +EV line that did not meet stricter Primary thresholds. The bullets below repeat the same model %, implied %, edge (pts), and EV % as that card.

• Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
• Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
• In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
• Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

• Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
• Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

June 08, 2026 (UTC)