Siofok vs PTE-PEAC Statistics & Analysis

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

• League: NB III - Southwest
• Fixture: Siofok vs PTE-PEAC
• Kickoff: 2026-05-24 15:00:00
• 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
• xG (showing): Siofok 1.45 — PTE-PEAC 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
• Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
• Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 40.1% · Over 2.5 59.9%); BTTS Yes (Yes 59.9% · No 40.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
• BTTS (model): Yes 59.9% · No 40.1%
• Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.8%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Skip unless odds move — the engine sees no line clearing the +EV gate.

When 1X2 is tight, prices often already embed the uncertainty — all three legs can be −EV, or show only small +EV that still fails the headline threshold — respect that when sizing.

Stake sizing should default to zero when no headline +EV exists — experimentation belongs in the discretionary bucket only.

Should I still read the 1X2 card?

Yes — it shows whether any winner price clears value. Here it often explains why there is no headline: probabilities can be clustered while prices already embed that uncertainty.

When would a headline +EV return?

When odds move enough that implied probabilities drop relative to the same model snapshot, or when more book prices arrive so EV can be computed reliably — then re-run the pipeline.

Is the most likely correct score still relevant?

As context only: it is still a low absolute probability tail outcome (often in the single digits, sometimes low teens). It does not override the “no headline +EV” stance — treat score bets as fun-sized if you play them at all.

What do the grey “lean” labels mean then?

They summarise where the model tilts (e.g. Under 2.5 or BTTS No) without claiming a positive economic edge. Use them as context; size to zero unless you deliberately accept discretionary risk.

• Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
• Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
• In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
• Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

• Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
• Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

June 06, 2026 (UTC)