Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Wisła Kraków II Statistics & Analysis

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

• League: III Liga - Group 4
• Fixture: Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Wisła Kraków II
• Kickoff: 2026-05-16 15:00:00
• 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
• xG (showing): Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1.45 — Wisła Kraków II 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
• Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.6%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
• Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 35.9% · Over 2.5 64.1%); BTTS Yes (Yes 67.0% · No 33.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
• BTTS (model): Yes 67.0% · No 33.0%
• Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.0%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

No clear +EV headline on this snapshot.

The cards may still show value leans (e.g. a preferred Under or a BTTS side) where prices are inefficient or incomplete — that is not the same as a positive-EV ticket at the configured threshold.

Correct-score markets remain high-variance even when one scoreline leads the table.

Why is there no “best bet” on this page?

The headline engine uses a minimum +EV threshold (e.g. 2%) for a default pick. A line can still show tiny +EV that fails that bar — we still call it no default bet so readers do not over-size thin edges.

When would a headline +EV return?

When odds move enough that implied probabilities drop relative to the same model snapshot, or when more book prices arrive so EV can be computed reliably — then re-run the pipeline.

What do the grey “lean” labels mean then?

They summarise where the model tilts (e.g. Under 2.5 or BTTS No) without claiming a positive economic edge. Use them as context; size to zero unless you deliberately accept discretionary risk.

Should I still read the 1X2 card?

Yes — it shows whether any winner price clears value. Here it often explains why there is no headline: probabilities can be clustered while prices already embed that uncertainty.

• Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
• Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
• In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
• Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

• Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
• Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

May 18, 2026 (UTC)