Statistics / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 4 / Czarni Połaniec vs Wiślanie Jaśkowice

Czarni Połaniec vs Wiślanie Jaśkowice Statistics & Analysis

Czarni Połaniec Czarni Połaniec
May 09, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 63%
Wiślanie Jaśkowice Wiślanie Jaśkowice
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Czarni Połaniec Czarni Połaniec ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1 1-0 ✖ Incorrect

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: III Liga - Group 4
  • Fixture: Czarni Połaniec vs Wiślanie Jaśkowice
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Czarni Połaniec 1.45 — Wiślanie Jaśkowice 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 61.0% · Implied: 54.6% · Probability edge: +6.4 pts · Est. EV: +5.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 65.6% · No 34.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.6%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Best Bet + Reason

The engine’s headline primary is: Over 2.5 goals.

We separate probability edge (model minus implied, in points of probability) from estimated EV (economic edge at the best price shown on the page).

No pick is a guarantee; variance is especially large in scoreline markets.

FAQ

Safer market than correct score?

Markets with more liquidity and smoother prices (often 1X2 or O/U 2.5 from many books) are usually easier to reason about than long-tail correct-score prices; still read EV on each leg.

What changes first if odds move?

Implied probabilities and EV move immediately with price; model probabilities in this snapshot do not update until the pipeline is re-run. Refresh after material line moves.

Is the most likely correct score a good bet?

Usually no as a standalone bet: the “most likely” scoreline is still a low absolute probability tail event (often single digits, sometimes low teens). Use it as context; keep any correct-score stake in the “fun / small” bucket.

Why might 1X2 look unattractive while totals do not?

Tight 1X2 prices often embed a fair three-way split, so EV on match-winner can sit negative even when Over/Under or BTTS still diverges from the model — compare the 1X2 row on the market cards to O/U and BTTS.

Risk Factors

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Methodology

  • Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
  • Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

Last Updated

May 18, 2026 (UTC)

How to use this
  • Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
  • Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
  • Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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III Liga - Group 4 III Liga - Group 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Avia Świdnik 31 20 8 3 68
2 Chełmianka Chełm 31 19 8 4 65
3 KSZO 1929 31 19 8 4 65
4 Star Starachowice 31 15 9 7 54
5 Korona Kielce II 31 16 4 11 52
6 Czarni Połaniec 31 15 5 11 50
7 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 31 14 8 9 50
8 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 31 15 5 11 50
9 Wisłoka Dębica 31 12 11 8 47
10 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 31 12 9 10 45
11 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 31 11 10 10 43
12 Wisła Kraków II 31 12 4 15 40
13 Naprzód 31 10 5 16 35
14 Sokół Kolb. 31 9 4 18 31
15 Cracovia Kraków II 31 8 5 18 29
16 Stal Kraśnik 31 7 6 18 27
17 Świdniczanka Świdnik 31 5 4 22 19
18 Sparta KW 31 3 1 27 10
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Avia Świdnik 31 72 32 +40 68
2 KSZO 1929 31 60 28 +32 65
3 Korona Kielce II 31 59 52 +7 52
4 Wisła Kraków II 31 59 54 +5 40
5 Chełmianka Chełm 31 58 27 +31 65
6 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 31 56 43 +13 50
7 Czarni Połaniec 31 54 43 +11 50
8 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 31 53 41 +12 45
9 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 31 52 41 +11 43
10 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 31 49 43 +6 50
11 Star Starachowice 31 48 37 +11 54
12 Naprzód 31 42 49 -7 35
13 Stal Kraśnik 31 36 51 -15 27
14 Wisłoka Dębica 31 34 27 +7 47
15 Cracovia Kraków II 31 34 61 -27 29
16 Świdniczanka Świdnik 31 34 74 -40 19
17 Sokół Kolb. 31 32 52 -20 31
18 Sparta KW 31 26 103 -77 10
III Liga - Group 4 Poland. III Liga - Group 4 Predictions
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