Sparta Katowice vs SKRA Częstochowa Statistics & Analysis

Sparta Katowice

May 16, 2026 - 10:00

1 1.45

0 1.25

xG Accuracy: 63%

SKRA Częstochowa

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Sparta Katowice Sparta Katowice ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1 1-0 ✖ Incorrect

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: III Liga - Group 3
Fixture: Sparta Katowice vs SKRA Częstochowa
Kickoff: 2026-05-16 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Sparta Katowice 1.45 — SKRA Częstochowa 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
Model: 67.4% · Implied: 58.5% · Probability edge: +8.9 pts · Est. EV: +5.8%
BTTS (model): Yes 67.4% · No 32.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.8%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Best Bet + Reason

The engine’s headline primary is: BTTS Yes.

If 1X2 looks tight, the engine may still find clearer structure in totals or BTTS — that is intentional.

No pick is a guarantee; variance is especially large in scoreline markets.

FAQ

How should I read EV versus a probability gap?

Probability edge = model probability minus implied probability (reported here in percentage points). EV ≈ model probability × best tracked decimal odds − 1, shown as return per unit stake. They are related but not interchangeable labels.

Is the most likely correct score a good bet?

Usually no as a standalone bet: the “most likely” scoreline is still a low absolute probability tail event (often single digits, sometimes low teens). Use it as context; keep any correct-score stake in the “fun / small” bucket.

What changes first if odds move?

Implied probabilities and EV move immediately with price; model probabilities in this snapshot do not update until the pipeline is re-run. Refresh after material line moves.

Who has the edge in the match-winner market?

Use the 1X2 model percentages in the summary and the 1X2 market card: the side with the highest model % is the model lean, but check EV — a lean can still be -EV after prices.

Risk Factors

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Methodology

Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

Last Updated

May 19, 2026 (UTC)

How to use this

Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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Back to Statistics

III Liga - Group 3 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Lechia Zielona Góra	32	19	10	3	67
2	Górnik Polkowice	32	20	7	5	67
3	Zagłębie Lubin II	32	17	6	9	57
4	Sparta Katowice	32	16	8	8	56
5	SKRA Częstochowa	32	16	8	8	56
6	Goczałkowice Zdrój	32	14	9	9	51
7	Kluczbork	32	14	7	11	49
8	Górnik Zabrze II	32	14	6	12	48
9	Warta Gorzów	32	13	7	12	46
10	Ślęza Wrocław	32	13	7	12	46
11	Carina Gubin	32	11	11	10	44
12	Karkonosze Jelenia Góra	32	11	9	12	42
13	Słowianin	32	11	9	12	42
14	Miedź Legnica II	32	11	7	14	40
15	Polonia Nysa	32	8	10	14	34
16	Starowice Dolne	32	7	6	19	27
17	Pawłowice Śląskie	32	5	4	23	19
18	Stal Jasień	32	2	1	29	7

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Zagłębie Lubin II	32	74	55	+19	57
2	Lechia Zielona Góra	32	71	16	+55	67
3	Górnik Zabrze II	32	67	42	+25	48
4	Górnik Polkowice	32	63	34	+29	67
5	SKRA Częstochowa	32	63	54	+9	56
6	Kluczbork	32	61	42	+19	49
7	Miedź Legnica II	32	58	56	+2	40
8	Karkonosze Jelenia Góra	32	55	52	+3	42
9	Warta Gorzów	32	51	47	+4	46
10	Sparta Katowice	32	47	32	+15	56
11	Carina Gubin	32	47	49	-2	44
12	Polonia Nysa	32	47	54	-7	34
13	Goczałkowice Zdrój	32	46	40	+6	51
14	Ślęza Wrocław	32	45	49	-4	46
15	Słowianin	32	43	48	-5	42
16	Starowice Dolne	32	32	77	-45	27
17	Pawłowice Śląskie	32	26	71	-45	19
18	Stal Jasień	32	21	99	-78	7