Elana Toruń vs Noteć Czarnków Statistics & Analysis

Elana Toruń

May 23, 2026 - 15:00

0 1.45

3 1.25

xG Accuracy: 42%

Noteć Czarnków

Premium betting site 1xbet: New users can use the promo code 1x_3342271 to receive $100 cash.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Elana Toruń Noteć Czarnków ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-1 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: III Liga - Group 2
Fixture: Elana Toruń vs Noteć Czarnków
Kickoff: 2026-05-23 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Elana Toruń 1.45 — Noteć Czarnków 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 45.8% · Implied: 38.5% · Probability edge: +7.3 pts · Est. EV: +29.2%
BTTS (model): Yes 46.9% · No 53.1%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.7%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Best Bet + Reason

Primary angle highlighted on the page: Under 2.5 goals.

If 1X2 looks tight, the engine may still find clearer structure in totals or BTTS — that is intentional.

No pick is a guarantee; variance is especially large in scoreline markets.

FAQ

Safer market than correct score?

Markets with more liquidity and smoother prices (often 1X2 or O/U 2.5 from many books) are usually easier to reason about than long-tail correct-score prices; still read EV on each leg.

What is the best-supported line in this snapshot?

Match the hero card above: if it says “Betting Primary Pick”, that leg cleared primary rules; if it says “Best +EV (tracked markets)”, it is the strongest +EV line that did not meet stricter Primary thresholds. The bullets below repeat the same model %, implied %, edge (pts), and EV % as that card.

How should I read EV versus a probability gap?

Probability edge = model probability minus implied probability (reported here in percentage points). EV ≈ model probability × best tracked decimal odds − 1, shown as return per unit stake. They are related but not interchangeable labels.

Why might 1X2 look unattractive while totals do not?

Tight 1X2 prices often embed a fair three-way split, so EV on match-winner can sit negative even when Over/Under or BTTS still diverges from the model — compare the 1X2 row on the market cards to O/U and BTTS.

Risk Factors

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Methodology

Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

Last Updated

May 26, 2026 (UTC)

How to use this

Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Elana Toruń & Noteć Czarnków!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Statistics

III Liga - Group 2 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	33	24	5	4	77
2	Luzino	33	23	4	6	73
3	Polonia Środa	33	19	6	8	63
4	Lech Poznań II	33	14	7	12	49
5	Flota Świnoujście	33	14	7	12	49
6	Elana Toruń	33	14	7	12	49
7	Wda Świecie	32	14	6	12	48
8	Lipno Stęszew	33	14	6	13	48
9	Unia Swarzędz	33	13	8	12	47
10	Kluczevia Stargard	33	13	7	13	46
11	Noteć Czarnków	33	13	7	14	46
12	Stargard Szczeciński	33	11	9	13	42
13	Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce	33	10	9	14	39
14	Victoria Września	33	12	3	18	39
15	Cartusia Kartuzy	33	11	5	17	38
16	Pogoń Szczecin II	32	10	5	17	35
17	Tłuchowia	33	7	6	19	28
18	Wybrzeże Rewalskie Rewal	33	3	6	24	15

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Luzino	33	76	37	+39	73
2	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	33	71	23	+48	77
3	Lech Poznań II	33	66	52	+14	49
4	Polonia Środa	33	65	42	+23	63
5	Pogoń Szczecin II	32	58	64	-6	35
6	Stargard Szczeciński	33	53	51	+2	42
7	Kluczevia Stargard	33	52	40	+12	46
8	Flota Świnoujście	33	48	49	-1	49
9	Elana Toruń	33	47	50	-3	49
10	Noteć Czarnków	33	46	45	+1	46
11	Unia Swarzędz	33	44	37	+7	47
12	Lipno Stęszew	33	43	51	-8	48
13	Wda Świecie	32	42	50	-8	48
14	Victoria Września	33	39	45	-6	39
15	Cartusia Kartuzy	33	38	49	-11	38
16	Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce	33	34	44	-10	39
17	Tłuchowia	33	32	64	-32	28
18	Wybrzeże Rewalskie Rewal	33	19	80	-61	15