Unia Swarzędz vs Victoria Września Statistics & Analysis

Unia Swarzędz

May 13, 2026 - 15:00

2 1.45

1 1.25

xG Accuracy: 80%

Victoria Września

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Unia Swarzędz Unia Swarzędz ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: III Liga - Group 2
Fixture: Unia Swarzędz vs Victoria Września
Kickoff: 2026-05-13 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): Unia Swarzędz 1.45 — Victoria Września 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
Model: 66.2% · Implied: 43.1% · Probability edge: +23.1 pts · Est. EV: +45.6%
BTTS (model): Yes 33.8% · No 66.2%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.9%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Best Bet + Reason

Primary pick from the decision engine: BTTS No.

If 1X2 looks tight, the engine may still find clearer structure in totals or BTTS — that is intentional.

No pick is a guarantee; variance is especially large in scoreline markets.

FAQ

What changes first if odds move?

Implied probabilities and EV move immediately with price; model probabilities in this snapshot do not update until the pipeline is re-run. Refresh after material line moves.

Who has the edge in the match-winner market?

Use the 1X2 model percentages in the summary and the 1X2 market card: the side with the highest model % is the model lean, but check EV — a lean can still be -EV after prices.

Safer market than correct score?

Markets with more liquidity and smoother prices (often 1X2 or O/U 2.5 from many books) are usually easier to reason about than long-tail correct-score prices; still read EV on each leg.

How should I read EV versus a probability gap?

Probability edge = model probability minus implied probability (reported here in percentage points). EV ≈ model probability × best tracked decimal odds − 1, shown as return per unit stake. They are related but not interchangeable labels.

Risk Factors

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Methodology

Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

Last Updated

May 17, 2026 (UTC)

How to use this

Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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Back to Statistics

III Liga - Group 2 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	31	22	5	4	71
2	Luzino	31	22	4	5	70
3	Polonia Środa	31	17	6	8	57
4	Lech Poznań II	31	14	7	10	49
5	Elana Toruń	31	14	7	10	49
6	Flota Świnoujście	31	14	6	11	48
7	Wda Świecie	31	14	6	11	48
8	Kluczevia Stargard	31	13	7	11	46
9	Lipno Stęszew	31	13	6	12	45
10	Unia Swarzędz	31	11	8	12	41
11	Noteć Czarnków	31	12	5	14	42
12	Stargard Szczeciński	31	10	8	13	38
13	Cartusia Kartuzy	31	11	4	16	37
14	Victoria Września	31	11	3	17	36
15	Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce	31	8	9	14	33
16	Pogoń Szczecin II	31	9	5	17	32
17	Tłuchowia	31	6	6	18	25
18	Wybrzeże Rewalskie Rewal	31	3	6	22	15

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Luzino	31	71	35	+36	70
2	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	31	65	21	+44	71
3	Lech Poznań II	31	64	45	+19	49
4	Polonia Środa	31	59	41	+18	57
5	Pogoń Szczecin II	31	56	63	-7	32
6	Kluczevia Stargard	31	50	36	+14	46
7	Stargard Szczeciński	31	48	49	-1	38
8	Elana Toruń	31	47	43	+4	49
9	Flota Świnoujście	31	47	47	0	48
10	Noteć Czarnków	31	42	44	-2	42
11	Wda Świecie	31	41	48	-7	48
12	Lipno Stęszew	31	40	45	-5	45
13	Cartusia Kartuzy	31	38	48	-10	37
14	Unia Swarzędz	31	37	36	+1	41
15	Victoria Września	31	36	41	-5	36
16	Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce	31	30	44	-14	33
17	Tłuchowia	31	29	59	-30	25
18	Wybrzeże Rewalskie Rewal	31	18	73	-55	15