Swit vs Wisła Płock II Statistics & Analysis

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

• League: III Liga - Group 1
• Fixture: Swit vs Wisła Płock II
• Kickoff: 2026-05-23 16:00:00
• 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
• xG (showing): Swit 1.45 — Wisła Płock II 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
• Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
• Model: 68.4% · Implied: 62.0% · Probability edge: +6.4 pts · Est. EV: +4.7%
• BTTS (model): Yes 68.4% · No 31.6%
• Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.4%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Best current value angle on the board — same leg as the “Best +EV” hero when Primary rules are not met: BTTS Yes.

Model probability is compared to implied probability from odds to highlight a probability edge; EV uses the same model probability with the best decimal price tracked.

No pick is a guarantee; variance is especially large in scoreline markets.

Why might 1X2 look unattractive while totals do not?

Tight 1X2 prices often embed a fair three-way split, so EV on match-winner can sit negative even when Over/Under or BTTS still diverges from the model — compare the 1X2 row on the market cards to O/U and BTTS.

How should I read EV versus a probability gap?

Probability edge = model probability minus implied probability (reported here in percentage points). EV ≈ model probability × best tracked decimal odds − 1, shown as return per unit stake. They are related but not interchangeable labels.

What changes first if odds move?

Implied probabilities and EV move immediately with price; model probabilities in this snapshot do not update until the pipeline is re-run. Refresh after material line moves.

Is the most likely correct score a good bet?

Usually no as a standalone bet: the “most likely” scoreline is still a low absolute probability tail event (often single digits, sometimes low teens). Use it as context; keep any correct-score stake in the “fun / small” bucket.

• Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
• Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
• In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
• Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

• Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
• Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

June 06, 2026 (UTC)