Mławianka Mława vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki Statistics & Analysis

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

• League: III Liga - Group 1
• Fixture: Mławianka Mława vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki
• Kickoff: 2026-05-23 16:00:00
• 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
• xG (showing): Mławianka Mława 1.45 — Lechia T. Mazowiecki 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
• Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
• Model: 73.6% · Implied: 65.3% · Probability edge: +8.3 pts · Est. EV: +11.1%
• BTTS (model): Yes 73.6% · No 26.4%
• Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.2%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Primary angle highlighted on the page: BTTS Yes.

Model probability is compared to implied probability from odds to highlight a probability edge; EV uses the same model probability with the best decimal price tracked.

Edges shrink quickly if prices move; always re-check the number on your book.

How should I read EV versus a probability gap?

Probability edge = model probability minus implied probability (reported here in percentage points). EV ≈ model probability × best tracked decimal odds − 1, shown as return per unit stake. They are related but not interchangeable labels.

Safer market than correct score?

Markets with more liquidity and smoother prices (often 1X2 or O/U 2.5 from many books) are usually easier to reason about than long-tail correct-score prices; still read EV on each leg.

What is the best-supported line in this snapshot?

Match the hero card above: if it says “Betting Primary Pick”, that leg cleared primary rules; if it says “Best +EV (tracked markets)”, it is the strongest +EV line that did not meet stricter Primary thresholds. The bullets below repeat the same model %, implied %, edge (pts), and EV % as that card.

Why might 1X2 look unattractive while totals do not?

Tight 1X2 prices often embed a fair three-way split, so EV on match-winner can sit negative even when Over/Under or BTTS still diverges from the model — compare the 1X2 row on the market cards to O/U and BTTS.

• Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
• Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
• In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
• Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

• Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
• Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

June 06, 2026 (UTC)