Cremonese U20 vs Bologna U20 Statistics & Analysis

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

• League: Campionato Primavera - 1
• Fixture: Cremonese U20 vs Bologna U20
• Kickoff: 2026-05-16 09:00:00
• 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
• xG (showing): Cremonese U20 1.45 — Bologna U20 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
• Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
• Model: 54.4% · Implied: 42.4% · Probability edge: +12.0 pts · Est. EV: +18.1%
• BTTS (model): Yes 46.0% · No 54.0%
• Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (12.7%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Primary angle highlighted on the page: Under 2.5 goals.

We separate probability edge (model minus implied, in points of probability) from estimated EV (economic edge at the best price shown on the page).

Edges shrink quickly if prices move; always re-check the number on your book.

Why might 1X2 look unattractive while totals do not?

Tight 1X2 prices often embed a fair three-way split, so EV on match-winner can sit negative even when Over/Under or BTTS still diverges from the model — compare the 1X2 row on the market cards to O/U and BTTS.

Is the most likely correct score a good bet?

Usually no as a standalone bet: the “most likely” scoreline is still a low absolute probability tail event (often single digits, sometimes low teens). Use it as context; keep any correct-score stake in the “fun / small” bucket.

Safer market than correct score?

Markets with more liquidity and smoother prices (often 1X2 or O/U 2.5 from many books) are usually easier to reason about than long-tail correct-score prices; still read EV on each leg.

What changes first if odds move?

Implied probabilities and EV move immediately with price; model probabilities in this snapshot do not update until the pipeline is re-run. Refresh after material line moves.

• Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
• Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
• In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
• Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

• Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
• Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

May 18, 2026 (UTC)