GVVV Veenendaal vs AFC Amsterdam Statistics & Analysis

GVVV Veenendaal

May 16, 2026 - 13:30

1 1.45

1 1.25

xG Accuracy: 82%

AFC Amsterdam

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 GVVV Veenendaal Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Tweede Divisie
Fixture: GVVV Veenendaal vs AFC Amsterdam
Kickoff: 2026-05-16 13:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
xG (showing): GVVV Veenendaal 1.45 — AFC Amsterdam 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
Model: 68.6% · Implied: 61.2% · Probability edge: +7.4 pts · Est. EV: +5.0%
BTTS (model): Yes 68.6% · No 31.4%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.6%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Best Bet + Reason

Top tracked +EV leg right now (hero card, non-primary grading): BTTS Yes.

If 1X2 looks tight, the engine may still find clearer structure in totals or BTTS — that is intentional.

No pick is a guarantee; variance is especially large in scoreline markets.

FAQ

What changes first if odds move?

Implied probabilities and EV move immediately with price; model probabilities in this snapshot do not update until the pipeline is re-run. Refresh after material line moves.

How should I read EV versus a probability gap?

Probability edge = model probability minus implied probability (reported here in percentage points). EV ≈ model probability × best tracked decimal odds − 1, shown as return per unit stake. They are related but not interchangeable labels.

Safer market than correct score?

Markets with more liquidity and smoother prices (often 1X2 or O/U 2.5 from many books) are usually easier to reason about than long-tail correct-score prices; still read EV on each leg.

Why might 1X2 look unattractive while totals do not?

Tight 1X2 prices often embed a fair three-way split, so EV on match-winner can sit negative even when Over/Under or BTTS still diverges from the model — compare the 1X2 row on the market cards to O/U and BTTS.

Risk Factors

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Methodology

Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

Last Updated

May 18, 2026 (UTC)

How to use this

Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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Back to Statistics

Tweede Divisie — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Quick Boys	32	18	9	5	62
2	De Treffers	32	17	8	7	59
3	Hoek	32	18	5	9	59
4	Rijnsburgse Boys	32	15	8	9	53
5	Spakenburg	32	15	8	9	53
6	HHC	32	16	4	12	52
7	Katwijk	32	14	7	11	49
8	Kozakken Boys	32	13	7	12	46
9	Sparta Rotterdam II	32	12	9	11	45
10	Almere City II	32	13	5	14	44
11	AFC Amsterdam	32	12	8	12	44
12	Barendrecht	32	13	4	15	43
13	GVVV Veenendaal	32	12	5	15	41
14	RKAV Volendam	32	12	3	17	39
15	Koninklijke HFC	32	11	3	18	36
16	Ijsselmeervogels	32	9	3	20	30
17	Excelsior Maassluis	32	7	7	18	28
18	ACV	32	5	9	18	24

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Rijnsburgse Boys	32	69	53	+16	53
2	Sparta Rotterdam II	32	69	65	+4	45
3	Spakenburg	32	68	56	+12	53
4	Quick Boys	32	65	32	+33	62
5	Almere City II	32	64	58	+6	44
6	Barendrecht	32	59	77	-18	43
7	De Treffers	32	58	34	+24	59
8	Hoek	32	56	35	+21	59
9	Katwijk	32	55	52	+3	49
10	HHC	32	52	39	+13	52
11	GVVV Veenendaal	32	47	61	-14	41
12	RKAV Volendam	32	45	53	-8	39
13	Kozakken Boys	32	43	50	-7	46
14	AFC Amsterdam	32	43	50	-7	44
15	ACV	32	43	69	-26	24
16	Ijsselmeervogels	32	42	59	-17	30
17	Excelsior Maassluis	32	37	56	-19	28
18	Koninklijke HFC	32	30	46	-16	36