Kitzbühel vs TSV St. Johann Statistics & Analysis

Kitzbühel

Jun 04, 2026 - 12:30

0 1.23

0 1.25

xG Accuracy: 51%

TSV St. Johann

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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Kitzbühel Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 0-0 ✔ Correct

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Regionalliga - West
Fixture: Kitzbühel vs TSV St. Johann
Kickoff: 2026-06-04 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.9% · Draw 29.0% · Away 34.1%
xG (showing): Kitzbühel 1.23 — TSV St. Johann 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.48)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
Model: 47.8% · Implied: 33.0% · Probability edge: +14.8 pts · Est. EV: +41.0%
BTTS (model): Yes 52.2% · No 47.8%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.9%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Best Bet + Reason

The engine’s headline primary is: BTTS No.

We separate probability edge (model minus implied, in points of probability) from estimated EV (economic edge at the best price shown on the page).

Edges shrink quickly if prices move; always re-check the number on your book.

FAQ

What changes first if odds move?

Implied probabilities and EV move immediately with price; model probabilities in this snapshot do not update until the pipeline is re-run. Refresh after material line moves.

Who has the edge in the match-winner market?

Use the 1X2 model percentages in the summary and the 1X2 market card: the side with the highest model % is the model lean, but check EV — a lean can still be -EV after prices.

Safer market than correct score?

Markets with more liquidity and smoother prices (often 1X2 or O/U 2.5 from many books) are usually easier to reason about than long-tail correct-score prices; still read EV on each leg.

Is the most likely correct score a good bet?

Usually no as a standalone bet: the “most likely” scoreline is still a low absolute probability tail event (often single digits, sometimes low teens). Use it as context; keep any correct-score stake in the “fun / small” bucket.

Risk Factors

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Methodology

Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

Last Updated

June 06, 2026 (UTC)

How to use this

Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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Back to Statistics

Regionalliga - West — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Wacker Innsbruck	30	26	2	2	80
2	Kuchl	30	20	2	8	62
3	Seekirchen	30	18	4	8	58
4	Imst	30	17	7	6	58
5	Dornbirn	31	16	4	11	52
6	Bischofshofen	30	16	3	11	51
7	Hohenems	31	11	11	9	44
8	Schwaz	31	13	5	13	44
9	SVG Reichenau	30	13	3	14	42
10	Kitzbühel	30	12	4	14	40
11	Wals-Grünau	30	10	8	12	38
12	TSV St. Johann	30	9	5	16	32
13	Lustenau	30	8	7	15	31
14	Rheindorf Altach II	30	7	6	17	27
15	Pinzgau Saalfelden	30	6	6	18	24
16	Kufstein	30	4	10	16	22
17	Lauterach	31	5	5	21	20

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Wacker Innsbruck	30	81	17	+64	80
2	Seekirchen	30	78	45	+33	58
3	Imst	30	66	37	+29	58
4	Dornbirn	31	61	44	+17	52
5	Kuchl	30	59	40	+19	62
6	Bischofshofen	30	58	40	+18	51
7	Schwaz	31	56	54	+2	44
8	Hohenems	31	53	49	+4	44
9	Wals-Grünau	30	51	60	-9	38
10	Lustenau	30	45	73	-28	31
11	TSV St. Johann	30	43	53	-10	32
12	Lauterach	31	40	78	-38	20
13	SVG Reichenau	30	39	52	-13	42
14	Kitzbühel	30	37	41	-4	40
15	Rheindorf Altach II	30	33	65	-32	27
16	Kufstein	30	27	48	-21	22
17	Pinzgau Saalfelden	30	24	55	-31	24