Statistics / Football / Portugal. Segunda Liga / Academico Viseu vs Sporting CP B

Academico Viseu vs Sporting CP B Statistics & Analysis

Academico Viseu Academico Viseu
May 16, 2026 - 10:00
0 1.25
0 0.95
xG Accuracy: 55%
Sporting CP B Sporting CP B
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Academico Viseu Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 0-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 18:43 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1625133

Closing Odds 1.5
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Academico Viseu 0–0 Sporting CP B
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Draw (1X2), Sporting CP B (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Sporting CP B (1X2) by about 13.0 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Academico Viseu (1X2) 43.2 63.0 -19.9
Draw (1X2) 28.7 21.8 +6.9
Sporting CP B (1X2) 28.1 15.2 +13.0
Over 2.5 goals 37.7 50.5 -12.8
Under 2.5 goals 62.3 49.5 +12.8
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 28.1% on Sporting CP B (1X2), while the closing snapshot implied about 15.2%. The difference — about 13.0 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Academico Viseu (1X2) 1.5 1.5 0.0
Draw (1X2) 4.33 4.33 0.0
Sporting CP B (1X2) 6.24 6.24 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.89 1.89 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.93 1.93 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Segunda Liga
  • Fixture: Academico Viseu vs Sporting CP B
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-17 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 43.2% · Draw 28.7% · Away 28.1%
  • xG (showing): Academico Viseu 1.25 — Sporting CP B 0.95 (total xG ≈ 2.2)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 54.4% · Over 2.5 45.6%); BTTS No (Yes 47.8% · No 52.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 47.8% · No 52.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Segunda Liga Segunda Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Maritimo 34 20 6 8 66
2 Academico Viseu 34 17 8 9 59
3 Torreense 34 18 5 11 59
4 Vizela 34 14 9 11 51
5 FC Porto B 34 15 6 13 51
6 União de Leiria 34 13 11 10 50
7 Leixoes 34 15 5 14 50
8 Feirense 34 12 10 12 46
9 Chaves 34 13 6 15 45
10 Benfica B 34 11 11 12 44
11 Felgueiras 1932 34 11 11 12 44
12 Lusitânia Lourosa 34 11 10 13 43
13 Sporting CP B 34 13 3 18 42
14 Penafiel 34 11 8 15 41
15 Portimonense 34 11 7 16 40
16 Farense 34 10 10 14 40
17 Pacos Ferreira 34 9 12 13 39
18 Oliveirense 34 8 10 16 34
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Academico Viseu 34 58 33 +25 59
2 União de Leiria 34 52 46 +6 50
3 Maritimo 34 50 29 +21 66
4 Torreense 34 46 33 +13 59
5 Leixoes 34 46 55 -9 50
6 Lusitânia Lourosa 34 44 52 -8 43
7 Benfica B 34 43 44 -1 44
8 Chaves 34 42 40 +2 45
9 Sporting CP B 34 41 34 +7 42
10 FC Porto B 34 41 42 -1 51
11 Vizela 34 39 40 -1 51
12 Portimonense 34 39 49 -10 40
13 Penafiel 34 37 39 -2 41
14 Feirense 34 37 40 -3 46
15 Felgueiras 1932 34 34 38 -4 44
16 Pacos Ferreira 34 34 48 -14 39
17 Oliveirense 34 34 49 -15 34
18 Farense 34 31 37 -6 40
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Maritimo 34 9.6 5.5 +4.1 66
2 Chaves 34 7.5 4.3 +3.2 45
3 Academico Viseu 34 8.5 6.2 +2.3 59
4 Feirense 34 2.9 1.1 +1.8 46
5 Leixoes 34 7.9 7.1 +0.8 50
6 Portimonense 34 6.2 5.4 +0.8 40
7 Benfica B 34 4.1 3.5 +0.6 44
8 Felgueiras 1932 34 7.2 6.7 +0.5 44
9 União de Leiria 34 8.6 8.2 +0.4 50
10 Sporting CP B 34 3.6 3.2 +0.4 42
11 Farense 34 3.8 4.2 -0.4 40
12 Lusitânia Lourosa 34 7.6 8.5 -0.9 43
13 Vizela 34 3.1 4.4 -1.3 51
14 Oliveirense 34 6.8 8.7 -1.9 34
15 Torreense 34 3.1 5.0 -1.9 59
16 Penafiel 34 4.7 7.3 -2.6 41
17 FC Porto B 34 4.0 6.7 -2.7 51
18 Pacos Ferreira 34 4.0 7.3 -3.3 39
Segunda Liga Portugal. Segunda Liga Predictions