Statistics / Football / Portugal. Segunda Liga / Vizela vs União de Leiria

Vizela vs União de Leiria Statistics & Analysis

Vizela Vizela
May 09, 2026 - 19:30
1 1.25
0 0.95
xG Accuracy: 72%
União de Leiria União de Leiria
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Vizela Vizela ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 15:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2882216

Closing Odds 3.13
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Vizela win · Vizela 1–0 União de Leiria
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Market intelligence

Supporting read on how the prioritized closing feed moved versus the model — use after the Primary pick above.

Market briefing

Market remained largely stable before kickoff. No meaningful late implied-price shift was detected between PRE30 and PRE1 on the prioritized bookmaker snapshot.

Despite limited late movement, the model still prices Vizela (1X2), Under 2.5 goals meaningfully above what those closing snapshots implied — that gap is a static “model vs. price” read, not a late steam or chase story.

The model still exceeds closing implied on Under 2.5 goals by about 11.7 percentage points — the clearest mispricing signal summarized on this page.

Model vs. closing implied

Market Model % Closing impl. % Gap (pp)
Vizela (1X2) 43.2 41.1 +2.0
Draw (1X2) 28.7 28.4 +0.3
União de Leiria (1X2) 28.1 30.5 -2.4
Over 2.5 goals 37.7 49.4 -11.7
Under 2.5 goals 62.3 50.6 +11.7
What this means

In plain terms: the model lands near 62.3% on Under 2.5 goals, while the closing snapshot implied about 50.6%. The difference — about 11.7 percentage points — is the largest model-vs.-market gap highlighted on this page.

Quick definitions: “closing implied” is the probability for that outcome implied by the final captured odds (after a simple de-vig). “Gap (pp)” is the model percentage minus that implied value, in percentage points (pp).

Closing-window line move

Single prioritized bookmaker per snapshot (not all books). Capture path: PRE30 → PRE1 · Book: Pinnacle

Column tags in parentheses: Closing uses the first available snapshot in PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Early uses the first available in PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 that is not the same capture as Closing.

Detailed capture odds are folded below — movement was negligible on de-vig implied prices.

View full line-by-line capture table
Market Early (PRE30) Closing (PRE1) Implied Δ (pp)
Vizela (1X2) 2.32 2.32 0.0
Draw (1X2) 3.36 3.36 0.0
União de Leiria (1X2) 3.13 3.13 0.0
Over 2.5 goals 1.94 1.94 0.0
Under 2.5 goals 1.89 1.89 0.0

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Segunda Liga
  • Fixture: Vizela vs União de Leiria
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 43.2% · Draw 28.7% · Away 28.1%
  • xG (showing): Vizela 1.25 — União de Leiria 0.95 (total xG ≈ 2.2)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 45.1% · Probability edge: +9.4 pts · Est. EV: +15.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.7% · No 46.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Statistics
Segunda Liga Segunda Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Maritimo 34 20 6 8 66
2 Academico Viseu 34 17 8 9 59
3 Torreense 34 18 5 11 59
4 Vizela 34 14 9 11 51
5 FC Porto B 34 15 6 13 51
6 União de Leiria 34 13 11 10 50
7 Leixoes 34 15 5 14 50
8 Feirense 34 12 10 12 46
9 Chaves 34 13 6 15 45
10 Benfica B 34 11 11 12 44
11 Felgueiras 1932 34 11 11 12 44
12 Lusitânia Lourosa 34 11 10 13 43
13 Sporting CP B 34 13 3 18 42
14 Penafiel 34 11 8 15 41
15 Portimonense 34 11 7 16 40
16 Farense 34 10 10 14 40
17 Pacos Ferreira 34 9 12 13 39
18 Oliveirense 34 8 10 16 34
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Academico Viseu 34 58 33 +25 59
2 União de Leiria 34 52 46 +6 50
3 Maritimo 34 50 29 +21 66
4 Torreense 34 46 33 +13 59
5 Leixoes 34 46 55 -9 50
6 Lusitânia Lourosa 34 44 52 -8 43
7 Benfica B 34 43 44 -1 44
8 Chaves 34 42 40 +2 45
9 Sporting CP B 34 41 34 +7 42
10 FC Porto B 34 41 42 -1 51
11 Vizela 34 39 40 -1 51
12 Portimonense 34 39 49 -10 40
13 Penafiel 34 37 39 -2 41
14 Feirense 34 37 40 -3 46
15 Felgueiras 1932 34 34 38 -4 44
16 Pacos Ferreira 34 34 48 -14 39
17 Oliveirense 34 34 49 -15 34
18 Farense 34 31 37 -6 40
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Maritimo 34 9.6 5.5 +4.1 66
2 Chaves 34 7.5 4.3 +3.2 45
3 Academico Viseu 34 8.5 6.2 +2.3 59
4 Feirense 34 2.9 1.1 +1.8 46
5 Leixoes 34 7.9 7.1 +0.8 50
6 Portimonense 34 6.2 5.4 +0.8 40
7 Benfica B 34 4.1 3.5 +0.6 44
8 Felgueiras 1932 34 7.2 6.7 +0.5 44
9 União de Leiria 34 8.6 8.2 +0.4 50
10 Sporting CP B 34 3.6 3.2 +0.4 42
11 Farense 34 3.8 4.2 -0.4 40
12 Lusitânia Lourosa 34 7.6 8.5 -0.9 43
13 Vizela 34 3.1 4.4 -1.3 51
14 Oliveirense 34 6.8 8.7 -1.9 34
15 Torreense 34 3.1 5.0 -1.9 59
16 Penafiel 34 4.7 7.3 -2.6 41
17 FC Porto B 34 4.0 6.7 -2.7 51
18 Pacos Ferreira 34 4.0 7.3 -3.3 39
Segunda Liga Portugal. Segunda Liga Predictions